Golden Fifty Years of Bull Market: Will Gold Prices Soar Again in the Next Half Century?

Gold has been a hard currency in economic transactions since ancient times. Due to its high density, excellent ductility, and strong preservability, it is not only used as money but also widely applied in jewelry and industrial fields. Over the past half-century, gold prices have experienced fluctuations, but the overall trend has been astonishing—2025 has seen a series of record-breaking highs. Will this 50-year-long bull market continue into the next 50 years? How should we analyze the future trend of gold prices? Is it suitable for long-term holding or for swing trading? Let’s explore in depth.

How did gold prices surge 120 times in half a century? The behind-the-scenes of breaking historical records

On August 15, 1971, U.S. President Nixon announced the suspension of the dollar’s convertibility to gold, officially ending the Bretton Woods system. Since then, gold prices have risen from $35 per ounce to $3,700 in the first half of 2025, with a first-time breakthrough of $4,300 in October. Institutional banks have raised their target prices for next year.

This means that over the past 54 years, gold prices have increased more than 120 times! Especially since 2024, global turmoil, central banks increasing reserves, and investors’ risk aversion have driven gold prices to rewrite history. In 2024, the price surged over 104%, and since 2025, driven by tensions in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, uncertainties in U.S. tariffs, and a weakening dollar, gold prices have continued to climb.

The four major cycles of gold’s historical trend, each wave is an opportunity

First wave: 1970–1975 Confidence Crisis (over 400% increase)

After the dollar was decoupled, doubts about the dollar’s monetary credibility surged, and people fled from the dollar to hold gold. Gold price soared from $35 to $183. Subsequently, the oil crisis erupted, with the U.S. increasing money supply to buy oil, leading to a second wave of price increases. Once the crisis eased and the usability of the dollar was reaffirmed, gold prices fell back to around $100.

Second wave: 1976–1980 Geopolitical Turmoil (over 700% increase)

The second Middle East oil crisis, the Iran hostage crisis, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and other black swan events triggered a global recession, with inflation soaring in Western countries. Gold prices skyrocketed from $104 to $850. However, the bubble was large; as the oil crisis eased and the Soviet Union disintegrated, gold prices rapidly declined, oscillating between $200 and $300 over the next 20 years.

Third wave: 2001–2011 Safe-Haven Demand (over 700% increase)

The 9/11 attacks triggered global fears of war, leading the U.S. to conduct a decade-long anti-terrorism war. The government cut interest rates and issued bonds to fund military expenses. After the housing bubble burst and interest rates rose, the 2008 financial crisis erupted. The Federal Reserve launched quantitative easing to rescue the market, leading to a decade-long bull run in gold. During the European debt crisis in 2011, gold hit a high of $1,921. Subsequently, under intervention by the EU and the World Bank, prices stabilized and fell back to around $1,000.

Fourth wave: 2015–present Golden Era (breaking through $4,000)

Japan and Europe implemented negative interest rate policies successively, global de-dollarization trends emerged, the Fed adopted aggressive easing in 2020, the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, and the Middle East crisis in 2023—all intertwined factors. Gold prices steadily climbed from $1,060 to over $2,000. The epic rally in 2024–2025 saw prices jump from $2,800 to $4,300, creating an unprecedented peak.

Is gold worth investing in? How does it compare to stocks and bonds?

Comparing over 50 years:

• Gold: Up 120 times since 1971
• Dow Jones Index: From 900 points to 46,000 points, about 51 times increase
• Last 30 years: Stock returns outperform, followed by gold, then bonds

But gold’s returns are not linear. From 1980 to 2000, gold traded between $200 and $300, with no profit for investors. Can life wait for several 50-year cycles?

Gold is suitable for swing trading, not for purely long-term holding. Its gains come from price differences, not dividends. When a bull market ends, prices can plunge sharply, but the lows tend to rise each year, indicating that its intrinsic value is still increasing over the long term.

In comparison:

• Bonds: Returns from interest payments, simplest
• Gold: Returns from price differences, moderate difficulty
• Stocks: Returns from corporate growth, highest difficulty

By capturing bull markets and short-term dips, gold can yield returns far surpassing bonds and stocks.

Five major gold investment tools comparison

1. Physical Gold

Direct purchase of gold bars or coins. Advantages: high privacy, wearable; disadvantages: inconvenient trading, high costs.

2. Gold Certificates

Gold custody receipts, easy to carry. Disadvantages: no interest, large bid-ask spreads, suitable only for long-term investment.

3. Gold ETFs

More flexible trading than certificates, but management fees are charged by issuers. Over time, they may slowly depreciate if prices remain stagnant.

4. Gold Futures

Leverage, long and short options, low trading costs. Suitable for short-term swing traders, but requires professional knowledge.

5. Gold CFDs

Flexible leverage, unlimited trading hours, low entry capital, high capital utilization. More suitable for small investors and retail traders for short-term swing trading compared to futures.

Economic cycles determine investment allocation

Investment rule: During economic growth, choose stocks; during recessions, allocate to gold.

• Good economy: Corporate profits optimistic, stocks rise; bonds and gold relatively quiet
• Bad economy: Stocks underperform, gold’s safe-haven and bonds’ fixed yields become attractive

A more prudent approach is to allocate appropriate proportions of stocks, bonds, and gold based on personal risk appetite and investment goals. Sudden geopolitical or economic events (wars, inflation, rate hikes) can change market patterns at any time. Holding a diversified multi-asset portfolio can effectively offset volatility risks and make investments more stable.

Will gold experience another bull market in the next 50 years?

Looking at history, each upward cycle in gold prices stemmed from different crises or policy changes: decoupling confidence crisis, geopolitical conflicts, financial crises, currency devaluation. These factors are cyclical in human economies. As long as global geopolitical risks persist, central banks may continue to oversupply money, and investors still need hedging tools, gold will always have demand.

Will the next 50 years see a super bull market again? It depends on global economic policies, geopolitical developments, and the dollar’s status. But one thing is certain: the long-term lows of gold will not fall below previous lows, a pattern investors should remember. For investors wanting to participate in gold markets, the key is to seize each bull cycle’s start, decisively build positions during sharp dips, rather than passively holding for 50 years.