The key to the 2026 gold trend lies in these four variables. What is the market betting on?

Gold market trend analysis enters a new phase. In 2025, gold prices are hitting new highs across the board, seemingly driven by a single factor, but the latest research from the World Gold Council overturns this perception — it’s not a single catalyst but four forces acting in sync that are driving gold higher.

According to Juan Carlos Artigas, Head of Global Research at the World Gold Council, these four major factors contribute surprisingly evenly to gold price performance: economic expansion, risk and uncertainty, opportunity cost, and price momentum, each accounting for about 10%. In other words, no single factor dominates; instead, multiple dimensions support and collectively create a strong gold market.

These four variables are also the “cornerstones” of gold trends around 2026. When the macro environment combines with price momentum, investment demand is stimulated, which is the core reason why gold has outperformed most risk assets this year.

Three Key Scenarios for 2026

Currently, gold prices reflect the macro consensus of the market, but the problem is — the economy rarely operates exactly as expected. What truly determines the direction of gold prices are the variables that push gold away from its current baseline.

Scenario 1: Mild decline could see gold rise another 5%-15%

If U.S. and global economic data remain uneven, eventually causing a mild slowdown in the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve will accelerate rate cuts, and the dollar will weaken further. In this environment, gold could gain 5%-15%.

Scenario 2: Worsening conditions could push prices beyond $5000

Artigas points out that, although current gold investment demand has rebounded, there is still significant room compared to historical high-risk periods. Since May 2024, gold ETFs have absorbed about 800 tons, which seems substantial but less than half of the capital inflow during past risk periods.

If geopolitical conflicts escalate or policy aftereffects compound, demand from ETFs, OTC markets, derivatives, and central banks could all increase collectively. Under such circumstances, gold prices could even break through the $5000/oz mark.

Scenario 3: Policy incentives could lead to a 5%-20% correction

If U.S. economic policies ultimately produce positive effects, trade negotiations ease, or fiscal policies become more friendly, some risk premiums will diminish, and gold prices could face a correction of 5%-20%.

Two Hidden Risks to Watch Out For

The gold trend in 2026 will also hinge on two variables —

Can central bank buying intensity be maintained? In recent years, central banks have been net buyers of gold, which is both a macro factor and a policy choice. If central bank demand continues, gold prices will remain supported; but if annual demand drops below 600-700 tons, it will put noticeable pressure on prices.

Will India’s recycling supply suddenly surge? More regions, including India, are using gold jewelry as collateral for loans. If India’s economy deteriorates significantly, it could trigger forced sales or liquidations, leading to a sudden increase in recycled gold supply, causing a supply shock and suppressing gold prices.

In short, the key to gold’s trajectory in 2026 lies in how these four driving forces evolve, and how the dual variables of central bank actions and supply dynamics interact.