Oil in 2025: Analyzing Black Gold as a Strategic Asset Class

The global energy landscape in 2025 presents fascinating dynamics for those looking to better understand the commodities market. Even amid the acceleration of the energy transition, oil remains an essential asset in the international economy. The question driving many investors is simple: does it still make sense to build positions in such a volatile market? The answer depends on a careful analysis of current trends and the geopolitical risks that have shaped this year.

The Structure of the Oil Market: Players and Dynamics

The oil universe operates through a complex chain. From large-scale producing companies—such as Petrobras in Brazil, Chevron, and ExxonMobil in the United States—to refineries that transform crude into derivatives, distributors reaching the end consumer, and traders orchestrating movements in futures markets. Understanding this structure is fundamental for those intending to invest in oil in Brazil or globally.

Investors basically face two routes: acquire shares of industry giants or trade financial derivatives, such as futures and contracts for difference. Each approach carries its own risk and reward profile.

Prices and Historical Behavior: Two Decades of Volatility

The trajectory of Brent crude oil prices over the past two decades reveals instructive patterns. In the early 2000s, the barrel hovered around $25. The year 2008 marked an extraordinary peak: the price soared to $147 per barrel, driven by speculation during the global financial crisis, then plummeted sharply below $40 at the end of the year.

Between 2014 and 2016, the scenario reversed. The barrel started around $100, but an oversupply in the international market pushed prices below $30. The 2020 pandemic brought an unprecedented event: prices turned negative, reflecting the total disconnect between supply and demand during lockdowns.

The post-2020 recovery was accelerated. In 2022, prices returned to $100, fueled by suppressed economic recovery and geopolitical tensions, especially the conflict in Ukraine. By 2024-2025, prices stabilized between $85 and $95 per barrel—marked by three main factors:

1. China’s industrial recovery: Chinese government stimulus reignited Asian energy demand
2. OPEC+ decisions: Production cuts of approximately 2 million barrels per day until mid-2025 support prices
3. Regulatory pressure: Carbon taxation schemes in the European Union reduced investments in new exploration capacities

Structural Reasons to Consider Oil as an Asset

Investigating whether oil remains relevant requires looking beyond daily fluctuations. There are solid fundamentals:

Resilient Demand Beyond 2025: Critical sectors such as commercial aviation, petrochemicals, and land transportation remain deeply dependent on oil derivatives. The energy transition is real but gradual—expecting complete obsolescence of oil in the next 15 years is illusory.

Inflation Hedge: With high interest rates in 2025, commodities like oil serve as protection against monetary devaluation. When inflation accelerates, crude prices historically follow suit.

Portfolio Diversification: Oil maintains low correlation with traditional equities. Adding exposure to this asset can smooth fluctuations in a diversified portfolio.

Emerging ESG Opportunities: Oil companies like Petrobras and Shell are investing in biofuels and carbon capture technologies, attracting capital from funds seeking the energy transition. This opens valuation multiple perspectives for sector companies.

How to Invest in Oil in Brazil: Practical Paths

Those wishing to build positions in this market have several alternatives, each suitable for different profiles:

Direct Shares of Producers

The most direct option is to acquire shares of oil companies. Petrobras (PETR3 and PETR4) offer exposure to the largest Brazilian producer—a bet on pre-salt development and global demand. ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), listed in the US, represent global giants with diversified geographic portfolios.

Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)

ETFs provide diversified access. XOP tracks exploration and production companies, while OIH focuses on specialized services like drilling. This approach reduces idiosyncratic risk by spreading exposure across multiple companies.

Derivatives: Futures and Contracts for Difference

For more sophisticated investors, futures contracts (WTI and Brent) allow leveraged bets on price directions. Contracts for difference increase flexibility—you can profit from both rises and falls without owning the underlying asset. This modality requires in-depth risk management knowledge.

Tangible Advantages of Investing in Oil

Potential Gains from Volatility: The oil market offers substantial price movements. Investors tracking geopolitical trends and supply-demand data can capture significant gains during transformative periods.

Global Exposure: Investing in oil provides access to developing economies—especially in Asia—where energy demand is growing. This diversifies geographic exposure far beyond developed markets.

Wealth Preservation: With high inflation, commodities preserve purchasing power. Oil, in particular, tends to appreciate when currencies depreciate.

Innovation Chain: Oil companies are pivoting toward clean energies. Investing in them now means potential participation in a multi-decade technological transformation.

When to Invest: Key Indicators for 2025

Monitoring certain signals facilitates timing:

• OPEC+ announcements: The next production adjustment will be announced in October 2025—critical dates for price movements
• Chinese economic indicators: GDP and industrial production data signal changes in Asian demand
• Developments at Climate Summits: Agreements like COP30 can influence exploration licenses and environmental compliance costs
• Geopolitical tensions: Conflicts in the Middle East and international sanctions continue to introduce risk premiums into prices

Risks and Critical Considerations

The oil market is not for the faint of heart. Extreme volatility, unforeseen geopolitical risks, sudden regulatory changes, and accelerated energy transition pose real threats. Investors must be psychologically prepared for deep drawdowns and capable of executing strategic adjustments with discipline.

The final recommendation: investing in oil requires solid knowledge, high risk tolerance, and active position monitoring. For those with these attributes, 2025 offers genuine opportunities in a market that, despite its challenges, remains central to the global economy.