The Japanese Yen falls below the 155 level against the US dollar, and the euro exchange rate hits a record high! Policy adjustment signals emerge

The continuous depreciation of the Japanese Yen has attracted market attention. On November 13, the EUR/JPY soared to 179.52, hitting a record high since the euro’s launch. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY exchange rate continues to rise, and the Yen’s depreciation against the US dollar is becoming more evident.

Economic Policy Shift Becomes a Key Variable

Market trends are closely related to policy expectations. Japan’s new Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, recently stated that the Bank of Japan should be cautious about interest rate hikes, implying that monetary policy may slow down. This signal further weakens the attractiveness of the Yen. On the other hand, the US government just ended a 43-day shutdown on the evening of the 12th local time, with Trump signing a temporary funding bill. The asymmetry in policies between the two countries is driving a unilateral depreciation of the Yen against the US dollar.

When Will Intervention Red Lines Be Triggered

The Japanese government’s stance is worth noting. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki issued a warning on November 12, pointing out “unilateral rapid fluctuations” in the foreign exchange market. This indicates that policymakers are observing market movements. Historically, Japanese authorities have intervened during two Yen depreciations in 2022 and 2024, with intervention levels at 158 and 161.7 respectively.

However, current intervention expectations are inconsistent. US banks believe that USD/JPY needs to reach 158 to trigger substantial policy responses. Goldman Sachs is more cautious, indicating that intervention probability will significantly increase only when the exchange rate reaches the 161-162 range. This suggests that the Yen still has room for further depreciation.

Key Points to Watch in the Future Market

The upcoming exchange rate trend will be dominated by two major factors. On one hand, the economic data released gradually after the US government restart; on the other hand, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is scheduled to announce a new round of economic stimulus plans in late November. Institutions generally estimate that by the end of December 2025, the target price for USD/JPY will be around 156. This means there is still room for market adjustment before government intervention truly begins.

The current key is to observe the further movement of the Yen against the US dollar and whether Fumio Kishida’s policy direction will boost Japan’s economic expectations.