How long will the strong trend actually last( and why do most traders exit too early)

Prices do not fluctuate randomly.

They move in phases, each leaving measurable evidence on the chart.

Using $RIVER$'s 1D, 4H, and lower time frame structures, let's break down:

How the current trend is formed

Where the market absorbs supply

Why prices remain stable near highs

And the potential real outcomes from here

This is not a prediction.

It's background + probability.

Phase One: Bottom Formation and Demand Shift ($3.90 → $7.00)

On higher time frames, $RIVER prices hovered around $3.9–$4.5 for a long time.

This area served as a long-term accumulation base.

Key observations:

Price stopped making lower lows

Selling pressure gradually weakened

Time passed without a collapse in price

This phase is crucial because time replaced price as a correction mechanism.

When prices refuse to go lower for a long period, it usually means:

> Sellers are exhausted, non-aggressive.

This bottom later became the foundation for the entire rally.

Phase Two: Trend Ignition and Expansion ($7.00 → $17.80)

Once the price breaks above the bottom's upper boundary, it rapidly expands.

The move from roughly $7 to $17.8 is accompanied by:

Strong directional candles

Minimal overlap

Very shallow internal retracements

This is a typical impulsive move.

Impulsive moves tell us:

Demand is stronger than supply

Resistance above is weak

Prices must reprice quickly

Importantly, this wave does not occur after multiple failed attempts.

It happens cleanly — a sign of solid structure, not hype.

Phase Three: First Retracement and Controlled Rebound ($17.80 → $11.60)

At $17.80, prices encounter obvious supply.

What follows is not panic — but a controlled pullback.

Prices retrace to the $11.6–$12.0 zone and stabilize.

This level is very critical because:

It is well above the initial bottom

Buyers have stepped in before prices return to previous lows

As prices approach this zone, selling pressure diminishes

This behavior confirms a higher low structure, a decisive feature of trend continuation.

When prices collapse back to the starting area, the real trend fails.

This has not happened here.

Phase Four: Reclaim and Trend Continuation ($12.00 → $16.70)

After stabilizing near $11.6–$12, $RIVER prices recover to higher levels and push back to $16.5–$16.8.

This recovery is very important:

Sellers failed to sustain downward pressure

Buyers regained control faster than expected

Prices recovered without prolonged consolidation

The market is essentially saying:

> “Supply above is no longer as strong.”

According to the latest charts, prices are currently around $16.6–$16.7, near recent highs.

Staying high after a significant rally is not weakness.

It’s evidence of acceptance at higher values.

Current structure: where the price currently stands

Let's clearly summarize key zones:

Major resistance: $17.80

Current value zone: $16.50–$16.80

Immediate demand zone: $14.80–$15.20

Structural support: $11.60–$12.00

Trend invalidation$12 Structural breakdown@E0: below $11.00

As long as the price stays above $12, the trend on higher time frames remains valid.

What actual scenarios could unfold from here?

Scenario One: Continued push toward the upper end of the range(High probability)

If prices remain stable above $15.0–$15.5:

Consolidation replaces deep retracement

Buyers defend early pullbacks

Pressure again approaches $17.8

A clean breakout above $17.8 would open a new price discovery phase.

This is the most natural outcome in a trending market.

Scenario Two: Sideways expansion(Neutral but healthy)

Prices may fluctuate between $15.0 and $17.8 for a while.

This will:

Absorb remaining supply

Cool momentum indicators

Allow trend reset without damage

Sideways at high levels is not bearish — it’s structural digestion.

Scenario Three: Deeper retracement(Still valid above $12)

A deeper pullback toward $13–( could occur.

Concerns only arise if:

Selling pressure becomes impulsive

Prices lose acceptance above )

Buyers fail to respond

Prior to that, such moves are still trend corrections, not reversals.

When will the trend truly fail?

Only if the following happen:

Price decisively breaks below $11.6

Market re-enters previous lows

Demand stops defending at higher levels

Trends do not end because prices “go up too much.”

They end when buyers disappear.

This has not happened yet.

Conclusion——

$RIVER$The structure shows:

Accumulation at lows

Clean impulsive expansion

Controlled retracement

Strong recovery

Acceptance at highs

This is the true expression of a trend.

Currently, the market is not asking: Is the trend big—

But: Is demand still greater than supply?

Based solely on price action, the trend is under test, not broken.

In markets, this distinction is crucial.