Gold hits $5,000.. Will 2026 be the year of the all-time peak?

During 2025, we witnessed one of the greatest bull runs in commodity markets, with the precious metal reaching $4381 per ounce in October before retreating to the $4000 range. But the question on investors’ minds now: is this just the first chapter of a longer story?

Major investment banks hint with a decisive answer: yes, and the best is yet to come.

Data Speaks: Why Is Gold So Strong?

The numbers tell a different story than what we’re used to:

Demand at its peak: Total demand in the first half of 2025 reached 1249 tons, up 45% in value compared to the previous year. Gold ETFs alone absorbed massive inflows, pushing assets under management to $472 billion, with holdings rising to 3838 tons – nearly at a historic peak.

Central banks haven’t stopped: They added gold reserves at an unprecedented pace. The Chinese central bank alone added over 65 tons, continuing its expansion for the 22nd consecutive month. Now, 44% of central banks worldwide hold gold reserves, up from 37% in 2024.

Supply is stuck: Mine production hit 856 tons in Q1 – a record but not keeping up with rising demand. The worst? Gold recycling decreased by 1% as owners prefer to hold onto their assets rather than sell. Extraction costs also rose to $1470 per ounce – the highest in a decade.

Economic Winds Push in One Direction

The equation is simple: Weak dollar + declining real yields + rising geopolitical risks = bullish gold.

The Federal Reserve cut rates to 3.75-4.00% in October, and markets are pricing in a third cut by December. BlackRock expects a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2026 in the moderate scenario. The lower the rates, the less opportunity cost to hold an asset that yields no interest like gold.

On the other hand, the dollar has fallen 7.64% from its peak at the start of the year, while 10-year U.S. bond yields dropped from 4.6% to 4.07%. This duo is exactly the support gold needs.

Geopolitical Tensions: Insatiable Appetite for Safe Havens

Trade conflicts between the US and China, along with escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the Middle East, pushed demand for gold up by 7% annually, according to Reuters. When uncertainty rises, investors move toward what is safe and eternal.

Global sovereign debt has exceeded 100% of GDP, according to the IMF. 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold holdings during Q3 2025 alone, according to Bloomberg Economics data.

Forecast Numbers for 2026

Here comes the part everyone’s been waiting for:

HSBC: $5000 in the first half of 2026, with an annual average of $4600.

Bank of America: peak at $5000, but a more conservative average at $4400.

Goldman Sachs: raised the forecast to $4900 with note that gold fund flows are strengthening.

J.P. Morgan: targets $5055 by mid-2026.

The broader range among analysts: $4800 to $5000 as a peak, with an average between $4200 and $4800.

Are There Risks?

Certainly. HSBC warned of a potential correction toward $4200 in the second half of 2026 if large positions decide to take profits. Goldman Sachs spoke of a “price credibility test” at $4800 – can gold really sustain such high levels?

Nevertheless, J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank analysts agree that gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward. The institutional outlook has shifted from short-term speculation to long-term investment.

Technical Picture: Neutral Signals but Upward Trend

Closing on Friday, November 21, 2025, at $4065. The price broke the upward channel line but still clings to the main rising trendline at $4050.

Support and Resistance Levels:

• Strong support: $4000 (Critical)
• First resistance: $4200
• Second resistance: $4400-4680

Momentum Indicators: RSI (RSI) stabilized at 50 – fully neutral. MACD remains above zero, confirming the overall bullish trend.

Technical Outlook: Trading within a slightly upward sideways range between $4000 and $4220 in the near term, with a positive outlook as long as the price stays above the main trendline.

In the Middle East

Regional central banks increased their reserves. If global forecasts of $5000 are realized, in Saudi Arabia, we could see prices of 18750 to 19000 SAR per ounce. In the UAE, similar conversions give us 18375 to 19000 AED per ounce.

Of course, these projections assume exchange rate stability and no major economic shocks.

Summary: A Historic Year Awaits?

Gold entered 2026 surrounded by very strong supporting factors: central banks hungry for the metal, new investors choosing to hold their positions, a unique demand structure, limited supply, and a tense geopolitical context.

The key question: will real yields continue to decline and will the dollar weaken? If yes, then $5000 is not a dream – but a realistic target.

Conversely, if confidence returns to traditional financial markets and inflation sharply recedes, gold may enter a long-term stabilization phase, avoiding ambitious levels.

But the current bet is clear: the market is betting on the first.