Looking back at the last cycle that truly changed the productivity structure—

👉 The Nasdaq from 1996 to 2003 (blue line), increased exactly 100% in the last 6 months before the bubble peaked.

Note that this is not the starting point of the bubble, but the stage where the bubble proved itself.

And now, the Nasdaq (white line) is following a very familiar path.

In terms of trend, it has already entered the overlapping zone of 1998–2000;
Narratively, it is also built on a genuine productivity revolution;
Emotionally, divergences are disappearing—fewer skeptics, all moving toward defaulting to correctness.

So, are we now standing at 1998 or 2000?

If it's 1998, that means there’s still a period of the most exhilarating, most irresistible, and also the easiest to ruin risk discipline market.

If it's 2000, then that is the last lesson the bubble has given to the market.