Gold approaches $5000.. Will 2026 be the year of historic leaps?

We witnessed an unprecedented bullish rally for the precious metal in 2025. It approached the $4,300 per ounce mark in October before retreating toward $4,000 with the arrival of November. These fluctuations raised a sharp question: Will the upward trend continue next year or should we wait for corrections?

Economic indicators suggest that 2026 may hold surprises. Central banks around the world have not stopped increasing their reserves, and new investors see it as a safe haven from upcoming crises. Sovereign debts are piling up, geopolitical tensions are escalating, and the dollar is gradually losing its shine.

Key Factors for the Expected Rise

Institutional Demand Continues

From the beginning of 2025 until September, total demand for gold reached record levels. Exchange-traded funds alone absorbed massive cash inflows, raising their managed assets to $472 billion. Individual investors are no longer mere spectators—about 28% of new investors in developed markets added gold to their portfolios for the first time.

Central Banks Buying Aggressively

The People’s Bank of China added more than 65 tons in the first half of the year. Turkey and India did not lag behind in this race. Experts indicate that this buying will not stop soon—it’s a long-term strategy to maintain reserves against exchange rate volatility and weak local currencies.

Supply Fails to Keep Up with Demand

Mines are producing efficiently, but additional output is very limited. In fact, extraction costs have risen to $1,470 per ounce—the highest level in a decade. This means that production expansion will be slow and costly, further boosting price prospects.

Monetary Policy: A Double-Edged Sword

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates twice so far, and the market expects a third cut in December. Logically, this weakens the dollar and reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold as a non-yielding asset.

However, global monetary policy is more complex. The European Central Bank remains cautious, while the Bank of Japan maintains its easing stance. This divergence creates an ideal environment for gold—when policies diverge, safe-haven demand increases.

Geopolitical Tensions Boost Demand

Trade conflicts between Washington and Beijing, instability in the Middle East—all these factors pushed demand up by 7% annually according to Reuters. The higher the risks, the faster investors turn to gold.

Major Bank Forecasts: One Target

Agreement on forecast figures is rare among major investment banks, but this time they are close:

• HSBC: expects gold to reach $5,000 in the first half of 2026, with an average of $4,600
• Bank of America: also targets $5,000 as a peak, with an average of $4,400
• Goldman Sachs: revised its forecast to $4,900
• J.P. Morgan: expects $5,055 by mid-2026

The most common range among analysts extends from $4,800 to $5,000 as a peak, with an average between $4,200 and $4,800.

Technical Analysis: The Overall Picture Is Positive

Gold tested the $4,381 level as the highest point in October, then retreated. However, technical analysis indicates that the metal remains on the main upward trend line around $4,050. If it stabilizes above this level, the path is open for further gains.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is steady at 50—meaning the market is completely neutral between buyers and sellers. This suggests we are in a consolidation phase before the next move. The MACD indicator remains above zero, confirming the overall bullish trend.

Upcoming resistance levels are clear: $4,200, then $4,400, then $4,680. Breaking these levels would test the major target at $5,000.

Beware of Corrections

But not everything is rosy. Even HSBC warned of a potential correction toward $4,200 in the second half of 2026 if investors start taking profits. Goldman Sachs cautioned that prices above $4,800 could face a “credibility test,” especially with weak industrial demand.

However, analysts agree on one point: a sharp decline is less likely unless a real economic shock occurs. The metal has entered a new price phase that is difficult to break downward, thanks to a strategic shift in investors’ view of it as a long-term asset.

Conclusion: 2026 Is the Year of Resolution

Gold price forecasts for the coming year reflect a struggle between two forces: profit-taking on one side, and new buying waves from central banks and investors on the other. If real yields continue to decline and the dollar weakens, gold is poised to reach new record levels.

But if confidence returns to financial markets and inflation subsides, the metal may enter a stabilization phase. Investing in gold in 2026 will depend on monitoring the dollar’s movement, real yields, and geopolitical events. Those who keep a close watch on these factors will be better positioned to capitalize on upcoming opportunities.