Gold analysts' forecasts today and the expected trajectory of the precious metal in the upcoming period 2025-2026

Exceptional Performance of Gold in 2025 – How Prices Surpassed Expectations

Gold prices experienced a strong surge this year, rising from $2,798 in January to a historic peak of $4,381 per ounce in mid-October, achieving gains of over 50% since the beginning of the year. This remarkable rise was not just a random spike but the result of the convergence of several economic and political factors:

• Significant decline in the value of the US dollar
• Ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve
• Massive purchases by central banks around the world
• Escalating geopolitical tensions boosting safe-haven demand

This exceptional performance proved that gold has become a vital investment tool in the face of widespread uncertainty.

Price Trends in 2024 – Setting the Stage for the Major Leap

Before the current surge, 2024 saw gradual developments laying the groundwork for the rise. The year started at $2,251 per ounce, supported by institutional demand from emerging markets, especially China. During the second and third quarters, a new high of $2,672 was reached as central banks continued to cut interest rates, ending the year above $2,660 amid multiple political fluctuations. This gradual performance served as a prelude to the major jump in prices in 2025.

Monthly Prices in 2025 – A Clear Picture of the Upward Trend

These figures show a clear acceleration in the upward movement, especially from September onward.

What Do Analysts Expect for the Precious Metal in 2026?

As 2025 nears its end, discussions about the price trajectory shift from overconfidence to cautious optimism. Most analysts hold modest bullish expectations, anticipating relative stability above $4,000 with potential reaching $4,500 by mid-next year, provided that monetary easing policies continue and the dollar remains weak.

Major Institutional Forecasts:

J.P. Morgan: expects an average of $5,000 per ounce by 2026, with a slight dip to $4,900 in the last quarter.

Goldman Sachs: sees a possibility of reaching $4,000 mid-2026, with an optimistic scenario hitting $4,900 by year-end.

Morgan Stanley: forecasts the metal reaching $4,500 by mid-2026, supported by actual demand from investment funds and central banks.

Standard Chartered: predicts $4,300 by the end of 2025, and $4,500 over the next twelve months.

Bank of America: expects prices to reach $4,000 by Q3 2026.

HSBC: raises expectations toward $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026.

ANZ: forecasts $4,400 by the end of 2025, and $4,600 by mid-2026.

Key Factors Determining Price Trends

Inflation and Its Direct Impact

Inflation remains one of the strongest drivers of gold demand. When the purchasing power of currencies erodes, investors turn to the precious metal as a means of preserving wealth. In September 2025, the annual inflation rate was around 3%, relatively high compared to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, boosting demand for gold as an effective hedge.

The Role of the US Dollar

The relationship between dollar strength and gold prices is clearly inverse. The weaker the dollar, the higher gold prices, and vice versa. In 2025, the decline in the dollar index significantly supported prices, especially with repeated signals from the Federal Reserve about potential rate cuts.

Central Bank Policies

Central banks worldwide, especially from emerging markets, have continued increasing their gold reserves. This ongoing institutional demand forms a fundamental support for prices and reflects governments’ confidence in the metal as a strategic reserve.

Political and Geopolitical Uncertainty

International crises and tensions drive investors to seek safety, with gold serving as a historic safe haven. The accelerating geopolitical developments in 2025 directly contributed to rising demand for the metal.

Demand from Investment Funds

Gold ETFs play a stimulating role in prices through massive inflows. As investor interest in these funds grows, the actual demand for physical gold increases.

Industrial Uses and Jewelry

Although jewelry and industrial applications constitute a smaller part of total demand, they provide a stable demand base. Asian markets, especially India and China, remain key drivers for this segment.

Mining Supply

Decreased mining output or supply chain disruptions could boost prices by reducing the relative supply against growing demand.

Investment Strategies for the Coming Year

Long-term Investment

Physical gold or gold-backed funds remain the optimal choice for investors seeking long-term protection. This approach offers relative stability and hedges against inflation, though it does not provide quick returns.

Short-term Speculation

Futures contracts and CFDs offer greater flexibility for traders looking to capitalize on daily price fluctuations. However, this path carries higher risks and requires technical knowledge and continuous monitoring.

Portfolio Diversification

Combining gold with other assets is a smart strategy to reduce overall risk and benefit from its safe-haven properties.

Potential Challenges and Risks

Despite positive prospects, several factors could alter the course:

Tightening Monetary Policy: Any return by the Federal Reserve to raising interest rates will exert strong downward pressure on prices.

Improvement in Geopolitical Conditions: Ending conflicts or easing tensions could reduce safe-haven demand.

Capital Outflows: A mass exit from gold into other assets could cause sharp corrections in prices.

Unexpected Dollar Strength: A shift in forex market dynamics supporting the dollar could impact gold negatively.

Summary and Future Outlook

Comprehensive analysis of data and forecasts indicates that gold has entered a golden period that may extend through 2025 and 2026. The baseline scenario suggests prices stabilizing within $4,000 - $5,000 per ounce, with strong chances of breaking higher levels if favorable conditions persist.

For investors looking to start, it’s essential to first define your goals: Are you seeking long-term protection against inflation, or aiming to profit from short-term price volatility? Each choice has its own path.

Gold is not just a precious metal but a sophisticated financial instrument offering protection in tough times. Success in investing requires a deep market understanding, a clear plan, and discipline to stick with it amid daily fluctuations.