Maduro is arrested, a $60 billion Bitcoin case surfaces

Author: Cathy, Plain Blockchain

Original Title: Did Maduro Really Hide 60 Billion USD in BTC?

On January 3, 2026, early morning, U.S. special forces arrested Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a military operation codenamed “Absolute Resolve” in Caracas.

This event has sparked a huge question in the crypto community: Does the Maduro regime really possess the rumored “shadow reserves”?

According to reports from investigative firm Whale Hunting and multiple intelligence sources, there is a startling rumor circulating: the Maduro regime may hold between 600,000 and 660,000 BTC. If true, based on early 2026 market prices, the total value would reach between $60 billion and $67 billion.

What does this mean?

MicroStrategy (now renamed Strategy), known as the “Bitcoin whale,” as of January 2026, holds over 670,000 BTC, worth approximately $61.3 billion. If the Venezuelan rumors are accurate, their holdings would be comparable to the largest corporate buyers worldwide, accounting for about 3% of the total Bitcoin supply (21 million).

But the question is: does this wealth really exist? If so, where is it hidden?

In the crypto world, there’s a strict rule: “Not your keys, not your coins.”

01 How did the rumors originate?

To understand where the “600,000 BTC” rumor comes from, we need to first consider the possible ways the Maduro regime could theoretically accumulate Bitcoin. It’s important to emphasize that the following analysis is based on public reports and intelligence estimates, not confirmed facts.

Path 1: The Oil Coin Scam — paving the way for crypto accumulation

In February 2018, under heavy U.S. sanctions, Maduro announced the issuance of the world’s first “national-level cryptocurrency” — Petro. The government claimed to have raised $735 million on the first day, with a total fundraising goal of $6 billion.

However, investigations reveal serious issues from the start.

Petro initially claimed to be based on Ethereum, then on NEM, and ultimately appeared to operate on a private chain that likely doesn’t exist. The government claimed Petro was backed by 5.3 billion barrels of oil in the Ayacucho Block, but on-site investigations showed the infrastructure was dilapidated, with no active extraction.

The so-called “fundraising” was probably just internal asset transfers within the regime.

Although Petro failed, it left a key byproduct: Sunacrip (the National Crypto Asset Regulatory Authority). This agency was empowered to regulate all crypto activities, issue mining permits, and even operate the national mining pool. It is not a regulator but a state money-laundering center.

In January 2024, Maduro officially shut down Petro. This was not a failure but a strategic shift—from “issuer” to “holder,” fully transitioning to truly liquid assets like Bitcoin and USDT.

Path 2: PDVSA-Crypto scandal — $21 billion unaccounted for

Market rumors suggest that the core source of Maduro’s Bitcoin reserves may stem from embezzlement of oil export revenues from state oil company PDVSA.

In 2019, the U.S. imposed comprehensive sanctions on PDVSA, cutting off its access to the global banking system. To survive, PDVSA launched an “anti-blockade” strategy:

Dark Fleet: Using oil tankers with disabled transponders to ship crude oil to Asian “teapot refineries” (small, non-state refineries).

Intermediary Networks: Using shell companies registered in the UAE, Russia, and elsewhere to obscure oil sources. These intermediaries often lack oil trading experience, with their only qualification being personal ties to regime insiders.

Crypto Settlements: Unable to receive USD wire transfers, intermediaries were instructed to pay in USDT (Tether).

In March 2023, Venezuela was rocked by the shocking “PDVSA-Crypto” scandal. Internal audits revealed that between 2020 and 2023, approximately $21 billion in oil export receivables went missing.

Where did this money go? It remains a mystery.

Some intelligence analysts speculate that part of it may have been funneled back into regime-controlled wallets via cryptocurrencies. It is claimed that Sunacrip established an automated “jumping board” mechanism:

• Receiving: Intermediaries transfer USDT into Sunacrip-controlled intermediary wallets
• Laundering: Using mixers like Tornado Cash to obfuscate fund trails
• Conversion: Converting USDT to Bitcoin at OTC desks in Russia or Eastern Europe
• Storage: Transferring Bitcoin into offline cold wallets, with private keys held by top regime figures

The core architects of this system are Tareck El Aissami (former oil minister) and Alex Saab (the regime’s “financial diplomat”). After resigning in March 2023, El Aissami was arrested in April 2024 on charges of corruption, treason, money laundering, and more. His assets are likely confiscated by the Maduro family.

Saab returned to Venezuela in December 2023 after a prisoner exchange with the U.S., swapping 10 American detainees for him, demonstrating his irreplaceable role in Maduro’s regime—probably due to his control over financial arteries.

Path 3: Military mining — confiscated “state computing power”

Besides oil revenues, another theory suggests that the regime might directly produce Bitcoin by controlling “production assets.”

Venezuela has some of the world’s cheapest electricity, mainly supplied by the Guri Dam. This makes Bitcoin mining highly profitable. Maduro’s government, through the military commercial sector CAMIMPEG (Mining, Oil, and Gas Military Company), monopolizes this advantage.

CAMIMPEG established the “Bolivarian Army Digital Asset Production Center,” where military mining farms enjoy privileges:

• Power supply assurance: Priority electricity during frequent nationwide outages
• Security: Heavily guarded by National Guard troops
• Zero-cost operation: Since electricity is subsidized and effectively free, marginal costs are near zero

But where did the equipment for these military farms come from? Much of it was seized from private miners.

Starting in 2020, Sunacrip, in cooperation with the military, launched a series of raids on private mining farms:

• 2020: National Guard seized 315 Antminer S9s in Bolívar state
• 2023: Raids at the “Aragua Train” gang headquarters in Tocorón prison, confiscating numerous mining machines and weapons
• 2024: In Maracay, over 2,300 Antminer S19J Pro units were seized in a single operation

Intelligence estimates suggest that between 2020 and 2025, the government may have confiscated tens of thousands of mining units from private farms and gangs. These devices were not destroyed but redeployed to CAMIMPEG-controlled facilities.

Based on known thousands of high-performance miners plus state-owned farms, this “zombie army” could have produced tens of thousands of BTC over recent years.

02 The source and skepticism of the “600,000 BTC” rumor

Key question: Is this number credible?

Based on intelligence reports from Chainalysis, TRM Labs, and Whale Hunting, the circulating estimate is between 600,000 and 660,000 BTC. But it must be emphasized:

This figure is solely from intelligence sources, not traceable on the blockchain as hard data.

There is no public blockchain evidence supporting this number.

Whale Hunting explicitly states: “This estimate comes from HUMINT (human intelligence), not confirmed by blockchain analysis.”

Nevertheless, the report provides a hypothetical composition analysis:

Is this rumor logically plausible?

Supporters argue:

• MicroStrategy comparison: As of January 2026, MicroStrategy (now Strategy) holds over 670,000 BTC. A sovereign state theoretically could reach similar scale.

• Funding support: PDVSA’s $21 billion missing between 2020-2023. If 50% was converted into Bitcoin, at average prices then, it could buy 300,000–400,000 BTC.

Skeptics argue:

• Lack of on-chain evidence: If 600,000 BTC truly existed, there should be traceable addresses, but none have been identified.

• The number seems too neat: 600,000 appears more like an estimate than actual data, possibly greatly overstated.

• Motive doubts: The rumor might be used for political purposes or market manipulation.

Conclusion: Without concrete blockchain evidence, this remains an unverified rumor.

03 If the rumor is true: who holds the private keys?

Assuming this “shadow reserve” exists, even if Maduro is arrested, it doesn’t mean the U.S. can control it.

The FBI’s primary challenge will be: how to prove these bitcoins exist and locate the private keys?

Who might hold the private keys?

If these assets truly exist, intelligence analysts suggest they are unlikely managed by a single account. More probable is a multi-signature (Multisig) or key-sharding scheme.

Potential private key holders include:

• Alex Saab: As the regime’s financial architect, Saab likely understands the full flow of funds and probably holds the critical mnemonic phrases or hardware wallets needed to recover the wallets. His return to Venezuela in December 2023 after the prisoner swap with the U.S. underscores his irreplaceability—probably due to his control over the regime’s financial arteries.

• Nicolasito (Maduro’s son): Named in indictments, deeply involved in illegal gold mining and regime operations, possibly holding a backup of part of the family’s private keys.

• Cilia Flores (First Lady): Known as “First Fighter,” with high status within the core circle. She might have physical control over some cold wallets.

• Technical officials: Former Sunacrip technicians responsible for maintaining multi-signature architectures. They may not know the full private keys but are crucial for reconstructing wallet access.

Cryptographic architecture speculation

Most likely, the scheme is M-of-N signatures (e.g., 3/5 or 5/7). This means at least 3 of 5 key holders must sign to move funds.

If Maduro, Flores, and Saab are under U.S. control, theoretically, the U.S. could coerce them into unlocking the assets. But reality is more complex:

• Geographical dispersion: Cold wallets could be stored in Caracas vaults, Russian safes, or Cuban safe houses.

• Dead man’s switch: There might be automatic triggers—if certain conditions are unmet over time (e.g., Maduro’s disappearance), funds could transfer to inaccessible addresses or be sent to other allies.

• Ideological resistance: Even under life imprisonment, key holders might refuse cooperation. For them, this is not just wealth but a final weapon against “imperialism.”

04 Market impact: the rumor itself creates uncertainty

Even if unverified, the rumor acts as a “Damocles sword” hanging over the crypto market. 600,000 BTC, representing 3% of total supply, would have a huge impact if it were real.

Three possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: The rumor is false

If FBI and blockchain analysis conclusively prove the “shadow reserve” does not exist or is grossly overestimated, the market may breathe a sigh of relief. This would mean no potential sell-off pressure, neutral or slightly positive for prices.

Scenario 2: The rumor is true and under FBI control

If the assets exist and the U.S. successfully seizes them, these bitcoins would likely enter judicial freeze, possibly for years. This effectively locks up a large supply, reducing circulating supply and potentially boosting prices.

This is similar to the 2013 FBI seizure of Silk Road bitcoins, about 170,000 BTC, which were eventually auctioned off. During the freeze, these coins were effectively removed from circulation, reducing market selling pressure.

Scenario 3: The rumor is true but private keys are uncontrolled

This is the most dangerous scenario. If the assets exist but private keys are not under U.S. control, regime remnants on the run might attempt OTC sales to raise funds, causing panic selling.

In 2024, the German government sold only 50,000 BTC, which caused short-term market volatility. A sale of 600,000 BTC would be catastrophic.

05 Summary

Maduro’s arrest indeed reveals a glimpse of how the Venezuelan regime has used cryptocurrencies to evade sanctions.

From the failed Petro experiment to the $21 billion PDVSA-Crypto scandal, and militarized mining facilities, these are confirmed facts. But the “600,000 BTC shadow reserve” rumor remains unproven.

What we can confirm:

• Venezuela has used crypto to evade sanctions
• PDVSA has $21 billion unaccounted for
• The regime has confiscated a large number of mining machines

What remains unconfirmed:

• Whether they truly accumulated 600,000 BTC
• Who holds the private keys (if they exist)
• Whether these bitcoins will enter the market

This raises a sharp question: when decentralized tech is used to evade sanctions, how do we balance freedom and order?

Until more evidence emerges, the “600 billion USD shadow reserve” remains an unverified rumor.