2025 Gold Price Fluctuations: International Market Analysis and Future Scenario Planning

Recent Gold Price Trends and Fluctuation Range

Gold has maintained a steady upward trend since last year, with the movements since the beginning of this year particularly noteworthy. As of July 5th, the international spot gold price was approximately $3,337 per ounce, representing an increase of about 27% compared to the beginning of the year. Even more remarkable is that it has risen approximately 39% compared to the same period last year, reflecting a shift in gold’s status within the global economy.

Domestic gold prices are following a similar trajectory. According to the Korea Gold Exchange, the spot gold price per 1 don(3.75g) is 635,000 KRW, up about 43% from 443,000 KRW in the same period last year. After a continuous upward trend until May, there has recently been a temporary correction phase, but signals of a downward trend reversal are not yet clear.

Key Factors Driving Gold Price Increases

Reorganization of the International Monetary System and Expansion of Gold’s Role

Several countries are showing efforts to move away from the dollar-centric international trade system. China is strengthening the international position of the yuan, while India is expanding the use of its currency in trade with major trading partners. Sanctioned countries are also adopting strategies to reduce dependence on the dollar by increasing demand for gold and alternative currencies. These trends are acting as structural factors that boost gold demand.

Ongoing Geopolitical Instability

Tensions in key regions such as Ukraine, Middle East conflicts, and US-China economic frictions are driving investors’ funds into safe assets. As seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, when economic uncertainty rises, gold demand surges.

Concerns Over Weakening Economies in Developed Countries

Issues like inflation in the US and slowing growth in Europe are reinforcing recession scenarios. These economic outlooks increase gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge and asset protection tool.

Development of a Rate Cut Cycle

Since the Federal Reserve’s 50bp rate cut in September last year, gold prices have surged. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding cash, directly increasing demand for gold. The potential for additional rate cuts is expected to further drive up gold prices.

Gold Price Forecasts for 2025: Diverging Expert Opinions

Bullish Scenario

JP Morgan has revised its early-year forecast upward, suggesting a target of $3,675 per ounce by the end of 2025. Considering the current price already exceeds $3,300 and there are only five months remaining until year-end, this scenario has a high probability of realization. Additionally, the $3,000 target set by Goldman Sachs and Citigroup has already been surpassed.

According to the Financial Times’ early-year survey, the average prediction among banks and refining companies was $2,795, which is significantly below the current gold price.

Bearish Scenario

Barclays and Macquarie have set a conservative year-end target of $2,500 per ounce. This implies about a 25% decline from the current price, and given the structural upward factors, this scenario is considered less likely.

Overall Assessment

Most market experts expect continued upward movement in gold prices through 2025. However, some opinions mention the possibility of a correction in the second half of the year, so investors with exposure to gold should apply prudent risk management principles.

Considerations for Investment

It is important to understand that gold price volatility is influenced by a combination of macroeconomic factors. Rather than following simple price trends, it is wise to monitor international political and economic situations, central bank policies, and exchange rate fluctuations comprehensively to manage positions effectively. Especially, trading with high leverage should be conducted based on sufficient experience and risk awareness.