Bitcoin remains pressured around US$ 90,000 as short positions reach US$ 250 million

Bitcoin faces significant technical resistance at the US$ 90,000 mark, reflecting a fragile balance between buyers and sellers. With the asset oscillating near US$ 87,700, the difficulty in consolidating gains reveals a fragmented market, where institutional investors are adopting defensive strategies by opening short positions totaling approximately US$ 250 million in Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana combined.

Reduced liquidity intensifies volatility and seasonal behavior

Capital withdrawal at the end of the year acts as a structural factor in price dynamics. Many traders have reduced exposures to preserve accumulated gains, causing compression in order book depth. This liquidity reduction amplifies abrupt movements even in the absence of relevant catalysts, making the market extremely sensitive to smaller operations.

The macroeconomic context also influences Bitcoin’s behavior. While gold and silver reach new all-time highs amid economic uncertainties, the crypto asset does not follow the same capital flow, creating a divergence from the historical pattern of positive correlation in risk-off environments. The BTC/XAU ratio indicates a relative loss of value, suggesting possible technical compression in the short term.

Constructive technical signals emerge despite price weakness

Momentum indicators are beginning to reveal important nuances in the market structure. The (RSI) on the three-day chart registers higher lows while the price forms lower lows, characterizing a classic bullish divergence. Similar setups in previous cycles preceded significant recovery movements.

On the four-hour chart, the price faces recurring rejections at the 200-period simple and exponential moving averages, which act as dynamic resistance delimiting the control zone. As long as Bitcoin remains below these averages, the probability of lateral continuation or new support tests remains high. Reclaiming this level is considered a necessary condition to restore a more consistent bullish structure.

Miner capitulation signals weakening of selling pressure

The mining segment is experiencing a period of significant stress. The hash rate has fallen by 4%, the sharpest decline since the first half of 2024, accompanied by a 9% monthly retracement in Bitcoin’s price. The 30-day realized volatility has exceeded 45%, a level not seen since April 2025.

This combination forces less efficient operators to shut down equipment to avoid operational losses. The capitulation process tends to reduce medium-term structural selling pressure, eliminating marginal agents who need to liquidate assets to cover immediate costs. Historically, drops in hash rate have been followed by positive returns in 65% of cases after 90 days, with an average return of 72% over six months.

Energy reconfiguration in China and network impact

One of the main catalysts for the recent decline was the shutdown of approximately 400,000 machines in Xinjiang province, removing about 1.3 GW of capacity in just 24 hours. The decision is linked to reallocating energy to data centers focused on artificial intelligence, an activity currently offering higher margins than Bitcoin mining.

Estimates suggest that up to 10% of the global hash rate could be permanently lost. This reorganization will concentrate mining among operators with access to cheaper energy and efficient infrastructure, raising the sector’s entry barrier.

Cost compression and government support

The break-even electricity price for the Bitmain S19 XP model has fallen from US$ 0.12 to US$ 0.077 per kWh in a year, representing a 36% reduction. Operations that do not keep pace with this cost compression face increasing risks of economic infeasibility.

Despite difficulties, at least 13 countries are already participating in Bitcoin mining with some level of state support, aiming for energy or monetary sovereignty. This geographic diversification tends to create greater network resilience even amid political pressures or regional energy reallocations.

Short-term outlook

Bitcoin awaits a more consistent influx of buying capital to break through the critical technical resistance. The combination of bullish divergences, miner capitulation, and structural supply reduction provides fundamental support for a possible reversal, provided it is confirmed by a significant increase in volume.

With year-end approaching and liquidity still limited, abrupt movements remain likely. Observers are closely monitoring the Christmas week, a period when volatility tends to amplify, creating both opportunities and risks for different positioning strategies.