Digital assets experience a slight pullback, while traditional markets rebound—Global market overview for December 22

Cryptocurrency Performance Diverges, Bitcoin Slightly Under Pressure

Entering the last week of December, the digital asset market shows a volatile trend. Bitcoin has fallen 0.34% in the past 24 hours, currently quoted at $88,020, which is approximately 6.35 million RMB based on the current exchange rate (roughly calculated with $2,000 = 14,400 RMB). Ethereum’s performance appears even weaker, with a 24-hour decline of 0.03%, priced at $2,976, roughly 21,465 RMB after conversion. In contrast, traditional financial markets have experienced a noticeable rebound, making this divergence noteworthy.

US Stocks Rally Across the Board, All Three Major Indices Rise

Good news came from the US stock market on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.38%, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.88%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.31%, demonstrating a strong overall performance. This rally is closely related to last Friday’s “Four Expiry Day” (simultaneous expiration of futures and options) which saw a trading volume of $7.1 trillion in contracts. Tech stocks led the charge, with Oracle up 6.6%, Nvidia and Broadcom rising 3.9% and 3.2% respectively, indicating continued market optimism towards hardware manufacturers. However, not all stocks performed well; Nike’s China business underperformed, with a decline of 10.5%.

Silver Breaks Record High, Precious Metals Remain Volatile

In commodities, silver prices surged to a record high, breaking through the $67.0 mark driven by investment demand and tight supply, setting a new record. Gold, on the other hand, remained relatively subdued, forming a doji candlestick for the second consecutive trading day, with a modest increase of 0.14%, priced at $4,338.6 per ounce. This high-low divergence reflects differing market expectations for precious metals.

Weak Yen Triggers Central Bank Intervention Warnings

After the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, the yen was expected to appreciate, but the opposite occurred. The USD/JPY exchange rate rose by 1.39%, approaching the critical psychological level of 158.0, with the yen facing ongoing depreciation pressure. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki issued a warning, stating that if “one-sided and violent” currency fluctuations occur, Japan will take appropriate intervention measures based on the bilateral agreement with the US. The underlying logic is that, following the BOJ’s rate hike, highly leveraged global macro hedge funds have found the yen’s “cost-effectiveness” as a funding currency to have significantly declined, easing carry trade risks but also adding new pressure on the BOJ.

Bond Market Reverses, Yields Rise Across the Board

The 10-year government bond yield has become a market focus. In the US, the 10-year benchmark Treasury yield rose to 4.15%, up 3 basis points from the previous trading day. Japanese 10-year government bond yields soared past 2%, reaching the highest level since 1999. European bond markets are no exception, with France’s 30-year government bond yield rising to 4.525%, hitting the highest level since 2009. This bond market adjustment indicates that global risk-free yields are rising, reducing the attractiveness of risk assets like stocks.

VIX Fear Index Falls Sharply, Risk Appetite Rebounds

Encouragingly, the VIX fear index dropped by 11.57%, reflecting a significant easing of market participants’ concerns about the future. European stock markets also rose, with Germany’s DAX 30 up 0.37%, France’s CAC 40 up 0.01% (smallest gain), and the UK’s FTSE 100 up 0.61%. Hong Kong stocks also rebounded, with the Hang Seng Index night session futures closing at 25,843 points, 152 points higher than yesterday’s close.

Federal Reserve Shows No Urgent Need to Cut Rates

Recent comments from Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams and Cleveland Fed President Harker reveal key signals: the Fed currently sees no urgency to further adjust interest rates. Williams believes that the current rate cuts have put monetary policy in a “very good state,” and he hopes inflation will return to 2% without unnecessary harm to the labor market. Harker is more hawkish, advocating that the Fed should keep rates unchanged until spring. This suggests that market expectations of significant rate cuts in 2025 may need to be adjusted.

US Consumer Confidence Still Needs to Improve

The US December Consumer Confidence Index rose to 52.9, showing some improvement from the previous month but still well below the levels of the same period in 2024. A survey by the University of Michigan indicates that consumers’ outlook on purchasing big-ticket items has deteriorated to a historic low, with economic conditions remaining the primary concern. This reflects that, although short-term sentiment has improved, the underlying economic fundamentals still require time to recover.

Energy and Forex Market Trends

WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.14%, reaching $56.5 per barrel. The US dollar index rose by 0.3% to 98.7, maintaining a strong stance. EUR/USD declined by 0.12%. These movements in forex and commodities further confirm the continuation of the dollar’s strength cycle.

Overall, December 22nd’s global markets show a pattern of traditional financial assets rebounding while digital assets experience slight adjustments. Multiple events such as the BOJ rate hike, the Fed pausing rate cuts, and silver reaching new highs intertwine to create a complex market environment. For investors, understanding the underlying logic behind these surface phenomena—namely, subtle shifts in global liquidity and the evolving correlation between digital and traditional assets—is crucial.