What awaits the price of gold in 2026? A comprehensive analysis of influencing factors and expected levels

The Gold Ounce Approaching $5000… Is This Realistic?

In the recent months of 2025, the precious metals market has experienced intriguing developments. The gold ounce price reached record levels exceeding $4300 before retreating toward $4000. This volatility reflects a state of uncertainty in global markets, but it raises a key question: Will the gold price forecasts for next week and the coming months maintain a sustainable upward trend or experience a correction?

Fundamental Factors That Will Determine Gold’s Direction in the Coming Year

1. Global demand for precious metals accelerates

Official data showed that demand for gold reached 1249 tons in Q2 2025, up 3% annually, but the value increased by 45% to reach $132 billion. This gap between quantity and value reflects upward pressure on prices.

ETFs in gold attracted massive inflows, with managed assets rising to $472 billion and holdings to 3838 tons, up 6% from the previous period. This brings them close to the historical peak of 3929 tons, supporting the possibility of continued growth in gold price forecasts rather than a decline.

North America led demand with 345.7 tons out of a total of 618.8 tons until September 2025. New individual investors played a significant role, with about 28% of new investors in developed markets entering the gold market for the first time.

2. Central banks continue their strong purchases

Central banks continued to bolster their reserves, adding 244 tons in Q1 2025, a 24% increase over the five-year quarterly average. Currently, 44% of central banks worldwide hold gold reserves, up from 37% in 2024.

China alone added over 65 tons, continuing its expansion for the twenty-second consecutive month. Turkey increased its reserves to over 600 tons. This ongoing trend is expected to remain the biggest factor supporting demand until the end of 2026, especially in emerging markets.

3. Mine supply does not keep pace with demand

Mine production reached 856 tons in Q1 2025, a slight 1% annual increase. This slow rise does not bridge the gap between rising demand and limited supply. Additionally, recycled gold declined by 1%, as owners of gold pieces preferred to hold onto them expecting further increases.

Extraction costs rose to $1470 per ounce in mid-2025, the highest in a decade. This makes any increase in production slow and costly, deepening the supply-demand gap.

4. Monetary policies and US interest rates

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October 2025 to a range of 3.75-4.00%, the second cut since December 2024. Markets expect an additional 25 basis point cut at the December 2025 meeting.

Estimates suggest the Fed may target an interest rate of up to 3.4% by the end of 2026. These cuts will lead to a decline in real bond yields, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and boosting its attractiveness.

5. European Central Bank and Bank of Japan

While the Fed began rate cuts, the European Central Bank continued its tightening policy, while the Bank of Japan maintained its easing stance. This divergence created a dovish environment that enhanced the role of the precious metal as a global hedge.

6. Inflation and sovereign debt

Global public debt has exceeded 100% of GDP, raising concerns about the sustainability of fiscal policies. As these concerns escalate, investors turn to gold as a safe haven to protect against loss of purchasing power.

About 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold positions during Q3 2025, seeking long-term protection.

7. Geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts

Trade disputes between the US and China, along with Middle East tensions, prompted investors to increase their exposure to gold. Geopolitical uncertainty in 2025 raised demand by 7% annually.

As tensions around Taiwan escalated and energy supply fears grew, spot prices surged past $3400, then continued rising to exceed $4300 in October.

8. US dollar strength and real yields

Gold moves inversely to the dollar and real bond yields. In 2025, the dollar index declined by about 7.64% from its early-year peak, influenced by rate cut expectations.

US 10-year bond yields fell from 4.6% in Q1 to 4.07% in November. This dual decline helped boost institutional demand for the yellow metal.

Gold Price Forecasts for Next Week and the Coming Months from Major Banks

HSBC: Gold heading to $5000

HSBC Bank expects a bullish wave driving gold to $5000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an average forecast of $4600 throughout the year. The report is based on increasing geopolitical risks, rising debt levels, and demand from new investors.

However, the bank warns that upward momentum may weaken in the second half of 2026, with a potential correction toward $4200 if investors take profits. A drop below $3800 is unlikely unless a major economic shock occurs.

Bank of America: Optimistic outlook with warnings

Bank of America raised its gold price forecast to $5000 as a potential peak in 2026, with an expected average of $4400. But it cautioned about a possible short-term correction if investors start profit-taking on a large scale.

Goldman Sachs: $4900 target is reasonable

Goldman Sachs announced an adjustment to its 2026 forecast to $4900 per ounce, citing expected stronger inflows into gold ETFs and continued central bank purchases. However, it warned that prices remaining above $4800 could test the market’s “price credibility,” i.e., the ability of gold to sustain high levels.

J.P. Morgan Bank: $5055 by mid-2026

Forecasts from this bank indicate that the gold ounce could reach around $5055 by mid-2026. The bank sees gold entering a new price zone that is difficult to break downward, thanks to a strategic shift in investor perception of it as a long-term asset.

Probable Price Range for 2026

Based on major banks’ forecasts, the most repeated range is between $4800 and $5000 as a potential peak, with an average between $4200 and $4800 over the year.

Local Outlook in the Middle East

Egypt: Surge to 522,580 EGP

Gold price forecasts in Egypt suggest a notable increase in 2026. According to specialized predictions, it is likely that the gold price will reach approximately 522,580 Egyptian pounds per ounce, representing a 158.46% increase compared to current prices.

Saudi Arabia and UAE: Conversion scenarios

If global forecasts materialize with gold ounce prices reaching around $5000 in 2026, converting to the Saudi Riyal could yield figures around 18750 to 19000 SAR.

In the UAE, the same forecast could give an approximate range of 18375 to 19000 AED per ounce.

It’s important to note that these forecasts depend on assumptions such as exchange rate stability and continued global demand.

Technical Analysis: What Does the Chart Say?

Gold closed November 2025 trading at $4065 per ounce, after touching its high at $4381 in October.

Support and resistance levels:

• Main support: $4000, and if broken with a clear daily close, it may target $3800 (50% Fibonacci retracement)
• First resistance: $4200
• Next resistance: $4400, then $4680

The RSI indicator remains stable at 50, indicating a neutral market. The MACD line stays above zero, confirming the overall long-term bullish trend.

Technical outlook: Continued sideways trading within an upward-sloping range between $4000 and $4220 in the near term, with the overall picture remaining positive as long as the price stays above the main trendline.

Future Outlook Summary

Gold price forecasts for next week and upcoming months generally look positive but depend on the stability of several key factors. As the monetary tightening cycle nears its end and the global economy enters a slowdown phase, the market may experience a tug-of-war between profit-taking and new buying waves from central banks and institutional investors.

If real yields continue to decline and the dollar remains weak, gold is poised to reach new historic highs possibly approaching $5000. Conversely, if inflation sharply recedes and full market confidence returns, the metal may enter a long-term stabilization phase, preventing it from reaching the highest target levels.

Ongoing monitoring of economic and geopolitical events will be crucial in determining the final trajectory of the yellow metal during 2026.