Tech Earnings Trigger Multi-Asset Rally as Rate Cut Bets Fade

Nvidia’s Better-Than-Expected Results Ignite Global Recovery

Nvidia’s stellar third-quarter earnings report proved to be the circuit breaker for battered Asian markets on Thursday, with broad-based recovery sweeping through the region as investors reassessed inflation and interest rate trajectories. The semiconductor giant’s upbeat guidance on AI chip demand from major hyperscalers dissolved lingering recession fears and reignited risk appetite across equities, currencies, and commodities.

The Asia-Pacific index (ex-Japan) climbed 0.6% as traders rotated back into beaten-down positions. Meanwhile, S&P 500 e-mini futures advanced 1.1%, signaling Wall Street’s readiness to break a grueling four-day selloff that had wiped out gains from the three major benchmarks. The bounce came as CEO Jensen Huang’s commentary on enterprise adoption eased concerns about stretched AI valuations that had triggered the previous week’s tech purge.

Fed Rate Cut Probability Collapses After Jobs Data Delay

However, optimism remained tempered by shifting monetary policy expectations. The delayed release of November’s employment figures—now scheduled for December 16 instead of early December—upended rate cut projections for the December 10 FOMC meeting. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut plummeted from 50% to just 33% in a single trading session.

Gavin Friend from National Australia Bank attributed this reversal to timing mechanics: with jobs data arriving six days after the December policy decision, the Fed would lack fresh employment signals to justify easing. “The anticipated cut has simply evaporated,” Friend noted, underscoring how administrative delays can reshape monetary narratives.

October FOMC minutes reinforced this uncertainty, with officials warning that premature rate cuts could risk embedding inflation and eroding central bank credibility—a message that resonated with traders hedging their rate-cut positions.

Dollar Strengthens as Treasury Yields Rise

The U.S. dollar index inched up 0.1% to 100.17, hovering near two-week highs as investors reassessed carry-trade dynamics and risk premium expectations. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.1444% from Wednesday’s 4.131%, reflecting market repricing of longer-term rate expectations.

Currency cross-movements betrayed mixed conviction. The dollar weakened 0.2% against the yen to 156.92 after the Japanese currency had posted a ten-month low earlier in U.S. hours—suggesting some profit-taking on long dollar positions. The euro slipped to $1.1530, similarly indicating consolidation after recent strength.

Commodities and Crypto Navigate Cautious Consolidation

Brent crude oil remained anchored near $63.51 per barrel, reflecting demand uncertainty in a tightening macroeconomic backdrop. Gold attracted modest safe-haven bid, rising 0.7% to $4,108.22 per ounce as risk-off sentiment persisted beneath the surface rally.

Cryptocurrencies staged a technical rebound, with bitcoin and ether each gaining 1.6% after earlier liquidation cascades. The recovery appeared primarily technical rather than conviction-driven, with traders awaiting September’s employment data to anchor the next directional move.

Market participants remain fixated on jobs data as the lynchpin for December policy timing. A stronger-than-expected print could further extinguish rate-cut hopes, while a soft employment reading might resurrect hedging demand for duration and rate cuts—setting up a pivotal data point for closing out the year.