2026-01-06 22:21:30

The bear market for meme coins in 2025 has just passed, and at the beginning of 2026, PEPE suddenly surged. It increased by 65% in one week, leaving behind DOGE's 17% gain and SHIB's 19% gain. Many people chased in at the price of $0.00000725, excitedly shouting to "hold the faith."

Listen to my advice, it's better to stay calm and observe during this market rebound. From a technical perspective, this rebound actually hides a very dangerous trap—the retest of the head and shoulders neckline. This pattern is especially good at trapping retail investors in the crypto market.

Let me briefly explain the logic of the head and shoulders pattern: three peaks aligned in a row, with the middle peak the highest called the "head," and the two lower peaks on the sides called the "shoulders." Connecting the lows of the two shoulders forms the "neckline," which determines the fate of the pattern. Last year, PEPE broke below this neckline and then fell freely until bottoming out in December. Now, this rebound is essentially testing whether it can regain stability above this neckline.

Where is the problem? I looked at the daily chart for the past 30 days, and the trading volume has been continuously shrinking during the rebound. This indicates that the buying momentum is almost exhausted. According to historical data, in the crypto market, after a head and shoulders pattern breaks the neckline, there is over a 70% chance that the retest will fail, and the second decline is often more severe than the first. For example, Ethereum's head and shoulders pattern last year failed the retest and then dropped by 15% to 24%.

PEPE's current situation is somewhat similar to Ethereum's back then. The declining volume and the strong but fading rebound are signs that the neckline retest is about to fail. Based on technical analysis, if it truly fails the breakout, the next target could be around $0.0000015.

PEPE-2,78%

DOGE-1,66%

SHIB0,4%

ETH-0,74%

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UnruggableChad

· 5h ago

I've seen quite a few head and shoulders patterns, but this time PEPE is indeed a bit risky. The shrinking volume is really something to watch out for; it's often a signal before a sharp decline. I think it's better to wait and not rush to chase. Those who insist on holding their beliefs might end up losing out. If the breakout fails, the decline could be even worse than last time; history tends to repeat itself. But then again, who can really predict this stuff perfectly? Anyway, I'm just observing for now.

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AirdropCollector

· 20h ago

It's the head and shoulders pattern again. To be honest, I'm a bit tired of hearing this every time. But on the other hand, the trading volume is indeed shrinking... which does seem a bit off. PEPE's recent surge is too outrageous, it feels a bit fake. I bought in at the price of 0.00000725, and now after seeing your analysis, I kind of regret it. Wait, is history repeating itself or is this a new story? Who can say for sure? After all the fuss, isn't it better to wait until everything is clear before jumping in?

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ChainComedian

· 01-06 22:50

Head and shoulders top pattern, I've seen too many people fall into the trap. A 65% increase is indeed tempting, but the shrinking trading volume is a very obvious signal. PEPE this time is really playing with fire. It's the classic chopping of the leeks rhythm again. Staying calm is the right approach; retail investors chasing highs are most easily shaken out.

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RugDocScientist

· 01-06 22:40

Head and shoulders top, I've heard this explanation too many times, and every time it's spot on, but in the end, you're trapped. The shrinking trading volume is indeed something to watch out for, but a 70% probability isn't a hard rule either. Whether this PEPE can break the neckline depends on the trend in the next few days. But to be fair, during such times, it's really wise for followers to stay calm and not get blinded by the surge. Wait, the position you mentioned, ... isn't that the same level as last September? Retail investors are too easily fooled by technical analysis; it's really just about the mood of the big players. I'm still on the sidelines with this PEPE; let's see if it can hold this line before making any moves. The trading volume is indeed declining, I see that too, and it feels a bit risky. I don't take your words as gospel, but this rebound is quite fierce, and it seems like a correction might really happen later.

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notSatoshi1971

· 01-06 22:35

Coming back to the head and shoulders pattern again? Bro, I heard this explanation last year, and look at the result. The shrinking trading volume is indeed scary, but don’t forget PEPE is also using this pattern. 70% chance of failure... so what about the 30% who succeed? I'm still observing this wave, but missing out wouldn’t be unfair. Anyway, I’ll wait until it breaks before making a move. That neckline line is so strange, causing so many retail investors to die unnecessarily. Honestly, I’m a bit scared now and don’t dare to chase.

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CryptoDouble-O-Seven

· 01-06 22:30

Another wave of rug pulls, huh? The people following the trend and buying this wave are probably going to get cut. The shrinking trading volume is indeed hard to explain; how can it keep rising? I'm already tired of the head and shoulders pattern. A 70% failure rate—what does that say? It indicates that most people will lose money. Just now, I saw someone hyping PEPE to turn the market upside down, but upon checking the technicals, the flaws are everywhere. That operation is truly outrageous. It's already 2026, and people are still thinking about "holding onto their beliefs." How much is that belief worth? I'm just waiting to see the moment the neckline fails its retest. When that happens, the decline will definitely be much more severe than 15%. Retail investors' money is just so easy to take, really.

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ForkMonger

· 01-06 22:28

volume's drying up, this retest's gonna fail hard fr

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RugDocDetective

· 01-06 22:23

0.00000725 That group of people is probably about to get trapped now When trading volume shrinks, it's time to run, this is the most deadly The head and shoulders pattern tricks people once again, retail investors love this Remember the last lesson with ETH, it dropped by 15 points directly Pepe this wave also feels similar, just bluffing

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