The recent market rebound has made many newcomers cheer, but I have to be honest—those who are fully invested might not realize that a storm is coming.

Having been in this industry for 8 years, I’ve seen too many people stumble when the surface appears prosperous. The real risk isn’t inside the crypto world itself, but in the quiet changes happening in traditional finance.

**Key data is right here: Nearly $9 trillion in US Treasury bonds will mature by 2026.** This figure comes from JPMorgan’s latest market report, which is more severe than previous forecasts.

Someone asked: "What’s the relationship between US bonds and crypto trading?" That’s exactly the difference between beginners and veterans. The crypto market seems independent, but it’s actually deeply dependent on global liquidity. When traditional finance faces pressure, funds are withdrawn from high-risk assets, with the crypto space bearing the brunt.

These bonds were issued at nearly zero interest rates back then, effectively "free money" from the US government. But now, as bonds mature, refinancing requires paying higher interest rates. To put it simply, it’s like locking in a super low mortgage rate years ago, and now, upon maturity, having to refinance at the current market’s higher rates, doubling your monthly expenses. The US government is facing this dilemma on a trillion-dollar scale.

What’s more troublesome is that major traditional buyers are retreating. Countries like China and Japan have continuously reduced their US debt holdings, meaning liquidity is tightening and bond yields are rising. When US bond yields become more attractive, funds naturally shift from high-risk assets like crypto. This chain reaction has already begun.

So, before blindly chasing gains, think carefully about your risk tolerance. The market rhythm has changed.