Recent signals from Federal Reserve officials are worth paying attention to. According to public statements, there may be over 100 basis points of rate cuts by 2026, which contrasts with the conservative stance of other recent officials and creates a clear divergence in policy expectations. The market generally interprets this as an early response to the risk of an economic recession.

Historically, whenever the Fed signals an early and strong rate cut, Bitcoin's average increase over the following 12 months tends to reach around 380%. The logic behind this is quite straightforward: falling US Treasury yields → decreased attractiveness of traditional assets → incremental funds seek alternative allocations → cryptocurrencies become an option. Mainstream coins like SOL, XRP, ETH, and others usually gain market attention first.

This round of capital transmission might unfold as follows: institutions begin adjusting their US Treasury positions → consciously start positioning in cryptocurrencies early → wait for genuine global liquidity easing before welcoming incremental funds. Of course, risks and opportunities coexist in this process. Whether to gradually build positions and stay cautious or to participate more aggressively depends on each investor’s risk tolerance and decision-making.