#2026年比特币行情展望 The Federal Reserve signals a rate cut, prompting a rally in global markets

Last night, global financial markets experienced a clear shift in sentiment. Several Fed officials collectively expressed dovish views, causing the three major US stock indices to break through historical highs, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 showing impressive gains. This rally also boosted the entire crypto market, with mainstream cryptocurrencies like $BTC, $ETH, and $BNB rising collectively, reigniting bullish sentiment.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman explicitly stated that this year's rate cuts could total over 100 basis points, as core inflation indicators gradually approach target levels. Another official, Lael Brainard, emphasized the need to balance inflation control and employment stability to prevent excessive tightening from harming the economy.

CME Fed Funds futures data show that the market has priced in a 40% probability of a rate cut in March. Although expectations for policy adjustments in January are low, a consensus has formed—at least two rate cuts are expected in 2025, with the federal funds rate target range by the end of the year projected to be 3.00%-3.25%. As a result, gold and silver opened sharply higher this morning, with funds accelerating reallocation of asset portfolios.

Is a new easing cycle really about to begin? Will this rally continue, or do we need to wait for the next key economic data to confirm? What are your thoughts on the future development of this market?