#比特币现货ETF The recent market movement before the Christmas holiday looks very familiar. Implied volatility has fallen across the board by over 5%, short- to medium-term IV has dropped more than 10%, and institutions are repositioning in advance—I've seen this routine in 2017, 2019, and experienced it again in 2022.

Year-end settlements, institutional withdrawals, and traders taking holidays—these three factors stacking up turn the market into a dead calm. But what’s worth reflecting on is that low volatility itself isn’t scary; what’s truly dangerous is the shift in market consensus behind it. When the market shifts from expectations of decline to a gradual downturn, many still wait for a rebound, unaware that the rebound could turn into a decline.

The Bitcoin spot ETF has changed the game over the past two years. After institutional funds entered, the behavior pattern at year-end is no longer the same as during the retail investor era. They won’t take risks during holidays, nor will they force trades when volatility is so low. So, in the next two weeks, it’s very likely to be a straightforward period of consolidation—no surprises, no shocks.

But history tells me that this calm often serves as a buffer before a major change. Whether it’s 2015 or a similar period in 2020, peace eventually gets broken. It’s just that we don’t know yet whether it will go up or down. Patience is key; only after the New Year will we see the true direction clearly.