#美国宏观经济数据 When I saw this set of data, the first thought that flashed through my mind was — we are back at that crossroads again.

A situation that has only occurred three times in 65 years; the last time was during the internet bubble in 2000, and before that was on the eve of the 2006 real estate crisis. Every time, American households are reallocating their assets, and each time, it hides the most critical turning point of the economic cycle.

Since 2008, the stock market’s share has more than doubled, rising from 25% to the current 31% — this number doesn’t seem exaggerated, but what does it represent? It indicates how much wealth has flowed from physical assets into the capital markets over the past 16 years. The real estate share has fallen below 30%, whereas in 2021 it was still at 34%. In just a few years, American households have completed a major shift in asset allocation.

I have seen too many people make wrong judgments at such moments. In 2000, some said the internet was the future and went all in; in 2006, some said houses would never depreciate and should be leveraged. And now, some are saying the stock market has already peaked.

But there is a detail worth pondering — corporate stocks and mutual funds have hit record highs, indicating that the foundation of this round of gains is much broader than during the internet bubble period. Back then, it was the frenzy of tech stocks; now, it’s the expansion of the entire listed company system. What does this imply? It could mean that the pricing mechanism is more rational, or it could mean that risks are being buried even deeper.

History never repeats exactly, but it always rhymes. The key is to see clearly where this rhyme ultimately lands.