From zero to hundreds of billions, Kalshi only took one year? The explosion of prediction markets has just begun.

Kalshi officially announces that the annualized trading volume has surpassed $100 billion, with the next target directly aiming for $1 trillion. The significance behind this number is far more than just a milestone—it marks the arrival of the prediction market from niche to mainstream. And the speed at which all this is happening may be faster than most people imagine.

From $27 billion to $100 billion, the truth behind the growth

According to the latest data, Kalshi’s total historical trading volume has exceeded $27 billion, with a daily average trading volume of $16.6 million. But what’s truly noteworthy is the growth rate—projected full-year trading volume for 2025 is $24.2 billion, a staggering 1100% year-over-year increase. What does this mean? At this pace, surpassing $100 billion in annualized trading volume is almost inevitable.

This is not an isolated growth for a single platform but a collective explosion across the entire prediction market sector. According to reports, in September 2025 alone, the combined trading volume of Kalshi and Polymarket reached $1.44 billion, making prediction markets one of the few genuine hot spots in the crypto industry.

Why is the growth so rapid?

• Regulatory green light: As the world’s first prediction market platform legally recognized by the US CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), Kalshi has broken the label of “insider gambling,” encouraging both retail and institutional investors to place bets
• Endorsement from major platforms: Coinbase and Robinhood have integrated prediction market features into their apps, enabling tens of millions of users to participate frictionlessly
• Explosion of user base: Data shows active users in prediction markets have exceeded 290,000 and are still rapidly growing
• Mature business model: Kalshi recently launched a VIP program (including dedicated account managers, limited-edition merchandise, offline events, etc.), indicating the platform has shifted from traffic-driven growth to refined operations

What is the platform doing?

Business model upgrade

Kalshi’s launch of the VIP program is no coincidence. This approach directly draws on the experience of major exchanges like Binance and OKX in managing key clients, including mechanisms like rebate-based user acquisition. This signals that Kalshi is no longer just a “prediction platform” but is building a complete trading ecosystem.

The founder’s execution power

The background of platform founder Luanna Lopez Lala speaks volumes: from being a chosen dancer at the Bolshoi Ballet School, to graduating from MIT and founding Kalshi, then competing head-to-head with US regulators for six years before winning—this is a typical case of a “non-crypto-native but highly capable” entrepreneur. Currently, Kalshi’s valuation has reached $11 billion, and 29-year-old Luanna’s personal net worth is $1.3 billion. This is not only a mark of success but also a market acknowledgment of the platform’s prospects.

Regulatory risks and opportunities coexist

Recent developments in US regulation are worth noting. Democratic lawmakers in New York are pushing the “2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act,” which prohibits government officials from profiting from prediction markets using insider information. While this appears risky, it actually signifies a refinement of the regulatory framework—clear legal structures will accelerate market standardization and mainstream adoption.

Industry analysis suggests that prediction market trading volume could surpass $70 billion by 2026, not including growth from on-chain prediction markets (like Polymarket). In other words, the arrival of regulation will not suppress the market but rather encourage more institutions and retail investors to participate.

How far is the next $1 trillion?

At the current growth rate, going from $100 billion to $1 trillion requires a tenfold increase. It sounds distant, but considering that:

• Prediction markets are fundamentally a new way of pricing information, and the market space itself is huge
• Giants like Coinbase and Robinhood continue to invest heavily
• Increasing global political, sports, and economic events
• Continuous influx of institutional investors

This goal might be closer than imagined. According to Bernstein’s latest forecast, prediction market trading volume could break through $70 billion in 2026, meaning the distance to $100 billion is not far.

Summary

Kalshi’s surpassing of $100 billion in annualized trading volume marks a pivotal point in the prediction market’s shift from niche to mainstream. Behind this are the platform’s execution, regulatory improvements, and industry maturation. While the next $1 trillion target may sound ambitious, based on current growth curves, it’s more a matter of time than possibility.

For industry observers, the real focus should not be whether Kalshi can reach $1 trillion, but how prediction markets will change the way financial markets price information and which new application scenarios will be activated in this process. That is the true significance of this wave of growth.