Moody's predicts 2026: What is still needed for stablecoins to become financial infrastructure

Moody’s latest cross-industry outlook report indicates that stablecoins are transforming from native crypto tools into a core component of institutional market infrastructure. According to recent news, the settlement volume of stablecoins in 2025 is expected to grow approximately 87% year-over-year, reaching about $9 trillion. Moody’s believes that fiat-backed stablecoins and tokenized deposits are becoming the “digital cash” used for liquidity management, collateral transfer, and settlement within an increasingly tokenized financial system. This assessment reflects a fundamental shift in the role of stablecoins—from trading tools to financial infrastructure—but this transition still faces numerous practical challenges.

The Role Shift of Stablecoins: From Crypto Tools to Financial Infrastructure

Moody’s places stablecoins alongside tokenized bonds, funds, and credit products, viewing them as part of the integration of traditional and digital finance. This positioning is crucial—it signifies that stablecoins are no longer just internal tools within the crypto ecosystem but are officially incorporated into the infrastructure system by institutions.

Institutional Adoption in Practice

By 2025, institutional-level actions have already begun:

• Banks, asset managers, and market infrastructure providers are launching blockchain settlement network pilots
• Tokenization platforms and digital custody services are gradually being introduced
• The goal is to streamline issuance, post-trade processes, and intraday liquidity management

These are not just proof-of-concept projects but real production-level deployments. According to the latest news, by 2030, these initiatives are expected to attract over $300 billion in investments into digital finance and infrastructure.

Three Key Uses of Stablecoins as Settlement Assets

Moody’s emphasizes that stablecoins are increasingly becoming settlement assets in the following scenarios:

• Cross-border payments: replacing inefficient traditional international remittance processes
• Repurchase agreements: providing institutions with flexible short-term financing tools
• Collateral transfers: accelerating asset flows in complex transactions

All three uses point in one direction: stablecoins are taking on the role of “digital cash,” and at an institutional level.

Preconditions: Security, Interoperability, and Regulatory Clarity

Moody’s report includes an important qualifier—the phrase “if stablecoins are to become reliable institutional settlement assets rather than a new source of systemic fragility.” That “if” carries significant weight.

According to relevant information, although stablecoins have surpassed $250 billion in scale with a compound annual growth rate of 65%, their deep linkage to U.S. Treasuries introduces hidden risks. About 80.2% of stablecoin reserves are U.S. Treasuries, meaning credit risk from U.S. debt can directly transmit to stablecoins. As of August 2025, the total U.S. debt has exceeded $37 trillion, with debt-to-GDP ratio at 123%, far above the internationally recognized safety threshold of 60%.

Moody’s emphasizes that for stablecoins to become reliable institutional settlement assets, they must excel in three areas:

• Security: Sufficient reserve assets and robust risk management
• Interoperability: Smooth interaction of stablecoins across different blockchains
• Governance and Regulatory Clarity: Clear rules and comprehensive regulatory frameworks

These are not purely technical issues but involve institutional and risk management considerations.

Future Outlook: Opportunities and Challenges

From Moody’s report, the development trajectory of stablecoins is quite clear:

• Continued expansion in scale, with significant capital inflows expected around 2030
• Application scenarios expanding from trading to settlement, financing, cross-border payments, etc.
• Deeper integration with traditional finance, becoming a key infrastructure in a hybrid financial ecosystem

However, challenges are also very real. The security of stablecoins ultimately depends on the safety of their reserve assets. Against the backdrop of rising U.S. debt risks and a global debt-holder “vote with their feet,” stablecoin issuers need to manage reserves more cautiously. Achieving interoperability also requires industry standards to be unified and regulatory approval.

From this perspective, Moody’s outlook is both a confirmation of stablecoins’ promising future and a reminder of their responsibilities.

Summary

Moody’s 2026 outlook reflects a significant market shift: stablecoins are upgrading from internal tools within the crypto ecosystem to foundational infrastructure for institutional finance. An 87% annual growth rate and a $9 trillion scale demonstrate this clearly. However, this upgrade depends on stablecoins meeting institutional-level security, interoperability, and regulatory requirements.

For the industry, the key moving forward is balancing innovation with risk management. The future of stablecoins is not just about size but whether they can truly become reliable institutional settlement assets. Achieving this will require joint efforts from issuers, regulators, and market participants.