Rubio's Three-Step Plan: How the United States Is Extending Comprehensive Control in Venezuela

2026-01-07 23:15:38

U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo recently publicly outlined a three-phase intervention plan for Venezuela, moving from stabilizing the situation and isolating its oil industry, to market reopening and political reconciliation, and finally to a transitional phase. This plan marks a shift in the Trump administration’s policy toward Venezuela from military action to institutional management. However, it is worth noting that domestic public support in the U.S. is far below expectations, adding uncertainty to subsequent implementation.

Details of the Three-Step Plan

Pompeo’s three stages can be understood as follows:

Stage	Name	Core Content
First	Stabilization Phase	Stabilize the national situation, prevent chaos, with the key being “isolating” Venezuela’s oil
Second	Recovery Phase	Ensure U.S. and Western companies access the Venezuelan market fairly; reconcile with the new government, guarantee amnesty and release for opposition figures
Third	Transition Phase	Promote national development and ultimately achieve a transfer of power

While this plan appears sequential, each step actually consolidates U.S. control. The “isolating oil” step is crucial—it directly cuts off Venezuela’s economic lifeline and sends a signal to the new regime: obedience is the key to lifting sanctions.

Strategic Intent Behind the Plan

According to related sources, the real goal of this plan is far more than just “stability”:

Oil control is central

The Trump administration explicitly states that the U.S. will “manage” Venezuela until new elections are held. More straightforwardly, the U.S. is considering supporting American oil companies through subsidies or profit-sharing to participate in rebuilding Venezuela’s energy infrastructure. Trump has indicated this process could be completed within 18 months, but it would require “enormous financial investment.” In other words, the U.S. is using economic interests to bind oil development, ultimately aiming for de facto control over Venezuela’s energy resources.

Pompeo’s key role

Pompeo has been designated to oversee Venezuela’s economic and political reforms, leading a team responsible for energy, finance, and military policy. This means the Secretary of State is not only a diplomat but also the de facto executor of this process. Pompeo, himself the son of Cuban immigrants and deeply hostile to Latin American leftist regimes, makes him an ideal choice for Trump.

Broader geopolitical strategy

Venezuela is just the starting point. According to related information, the Trump administration is simultaneously targeting Iran, pressuring Cuba, and threatening Nigeria, indicating that the U.S. is deploying a “reusable script” against unruly nations—intelligence, special operations, and precision strikes, with low cost and quick results.

Concerns Over Public Support

The execution of this plan faces a practical issue: insufficient domestic support in the U.S. According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll:

33% of Americans support kidnapping Maduro, 34% oppose, 32% are unsure
43% oppose U.S. dominance over Venezuela, only 34% support
46% oppose U.S. control of Venezuelan oil fields, only 30% support
72% are very or somewhat concerned about U.S. “over-intervention” in Venezuela

This means that if subsequent control efforts encounter problems or if the U.S. is dragged into a prolonged quagmire, this “miraculous operation” could quickly turn into a political farce. This also explains why Trump showed “unusual caution” when Maduro’s successor Rodriguez assumed the interim presidency.

Initial Regional Impact

Changes in Venezuela’s situation have already affected neighboring countries. Cuba is hit hardest—previously, Venezuela supplied Cuba with an average of 35,000 barrels of oil daily. Now that lifeline has been cut, and nationwide blackouts have begun in Cuba. This is just the beginning. According to analysis, countries like Cuba and Nigeria could become the U.S.'s next targets.

Summary

Pompeo’s three-step plan is essentially a gradual control framework—from military strikes to institutional management, from short-term stabilization to long-term economic binding. It reflects the Trump administration’s new approach: avoiding large-scale occupation, instead achieving goals through precision strikes and economic control. However, the success of the plan depends on multiple factors, including sustained domestic support, cooperation from the new regime, and international reactions. Once these variables shift, this carefully designed plan could face unforeseen challenges.

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.