From defense to offense: Bitcoin's market structure at the beginning of the year is undergoing reconstruction, and participation enthusiasm is recovering

According to the latest weekly market observation report from Glassnode, Bitcoin has demonstrated a more robust chip structure since the beginning of 2026. The deleveraging event at the end of 2025 and the maturing cycle at year-end effectively cleared residual positions in the market, leaving a clearer and more transparent signal environment. The current market is shifting from a defensive, distribution-driven behavior pattern to selectively re-accepting risk and rebuilding engagement. This transition reflects substantial improvement in the market’s fundamentals.

Market Cleansing Completed, The Significance of Structural Reset

The market volatility at the end of 2025 was not simply a decline but a necessary cleansing. According to Glassnode analysis, this cleansing effectively reset the market’s structural constraints. Specifically:

• Residual positions in spot, futures, and options markets were cleared
• The market signal environment shifted from chaos to clarity and transparency
• Structural accumulation remains moderate, but excess positions have been eliminated

This means the market has returned from a high-leverage, high-risk state to a relatively healthy foundation. Data shows that the current BTC price is around $91,027, down 2.45% in the past 24 hours, but with a 7-day increase of 3.89%, reflecting a recovery trend after the cleansing.

Early Signs of Engagement Recovery

Signs of renewed market activity are gradually emerging:

ETF capital flows stabilize

The stabilization of ETF capital flows is an important indicator of engagement recovery, indicating that institutional funds are beginning to reallocate after year-end volatility.

Futures market engagement rebuilding

Futures market activity is rising, often signaling that traders have new expectations for the future. According to relevant data, the 7-day average funding rate in major perpetual contracts has risen from near 0% to 0.005%, then stabilized at 0.003% over the past 24 hours. Although this level is still below the historical high standard of 0.01%, the improving trend is clear.

Options market turning bullish

The skewness in the options market is normalizing, volatility has bottomed out, and traders’ gamma values near key high strike prices have turned to short positions—these are all bullish signals.

Key Technical Levels

According to Negentropic, a co-founder of Glassnode, the critical level for Bitcoin to break through is $94,700. If the daily closing price reaches this level, the probability of retesting the all-time high will significantly increase. Breaking this key level will serve as a crucial test to verify whether the improved market structure can translate into an upward trend.

Potential for Market Participation Enthusiasm Revival

Although current trading volume has hit a four-month low since November 2023, this seemingly contradicts the “participation enthusiasm rebuilding.” In reality, it reflects a rational adjustment in the market. In a liquidity-sparse environment, rising prices tend to be more meaningful. Once the key level is broken, liquidity could return quite rapidly.

Based on Glassnode’s assessment, although structural accumulation remains moderate, the clearing of excess positions and the re-emergence of upward potential indicate that Bitcoin, at the start of 2026, has a more solid foundation. The internal market structure continues to improve, and the possibility of expansion increases accordingly.

Summary

Bitcoin’s market structure is undergoing a process from cleansing to rebuilding. The deleveraging at the end of 2025 created short-term volatility but laid a healthier foundation for the 2026 market. Stable ETF capital flows, the recovery of futures and options market participation, and a shift in market sentiment from defense to risk-taking are all positive signals. The key is whether it can break through the technical level of $94,700. Once broken, the market may enter a new expansion cycle. The current low trading volume is not a pessimistic signal; rather, it indicates that genuine participants are waiting for clear directional confirmation.