Capital depletion vs. weak demand: Is Bitcoin really going sideways?

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju recently expressed the view that capital inflows into Bitcoin have dried up, and the market will remain sideways in the coming months. This assessment has attracted market attention, but a deeper analysis of on-chain data and market structure reveals hidden risks behind this expectation. Currently, BTC price is fluctuating around $91,000, just a step away from $100,000. However, whether the support for this price is strong enough remains a key question.

Is Capital Inflow Truly Exhausted?

Ki Young Ju’s judgment is based on three core observations: First, institutional long-term holders have ended previous whale and retail selling cycles; large institutions like MicroStrategy have not sold any significant portion of their 673,000 BTC holdings. Second, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has shifted from net inflow to net outflow, marking an important structural change. Third, capital has rotated into other sectors such as stocks.

These observations are confirmed by other analysts at CryptoQuant. Research director Julio Moreno pointed out that since early November 2025, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has turned into net selling, and aside from MicroStrategy, demand from corporate finance departments has basically stagnated. On-chain demand indicators are also issuing warning signals; even if Bitcoin prices return above $93,000, on-chain demand remains weak.

From this perspective, the judgment of exhausted capital inflows is well-supported by data.

Deep Changes in Market Structure

More noteworthy is Ki Young Ju’s emphasis that liquidity channels have become more diversified, and the behavior of timing capital inflows has lost significance. This reflects a fundamental shift in the Bitcoin market: from a single-driven spot inflow to a multi-dimensional liquidity pattern involving derivatives, ETFs, corporate balance sheets, and more.

What does this mean? The traditional linear logic of “capital inflow leads to price increase” is outdated. The options market is concentrated on January expirations with a $100,000 strike price. The nominal value of call options is more than twice that of put options, indicating market optimism about upward movement. However, this optimism in the options market does not necessarily translate into real demand in the spot market.

The True Risks Behind the Sideways Expectation

Ki Young Ju believes Bitcoin will not drop more than 50% from its all-time high as in previous bear markets, and will remain sideways in the coming months. This judgment seems moderate but conceals real market difficulties.

According to the latest news, short-term holder selling pressure is suppressed, but this suppression does not stem from confidence in the market’s future but from “passive holding out of helplessness.” Short-term holders’ realized price is the average cost over 155 days. When BTC price falls below this level, these investors are all at a loss. They are not selling because they are optimistic, but because cutting losses is too painful.

Once BTC breaks above $100,000, short-term holders may have a chance to unwind their positions, and selling pressure could be released en masse. This is the biggest hidden risk in the sideways expectation.

Key Observations

Summary

Ki Young Ju’s judgment that capital inflows have dried up aligns with the current situation, and the sideways expectation is somewhat reasonable. However, the market’s reality may be more complex: exhausted capital does not equal stable prices, and sideways does not mean risk-free. The potential for short-term holder unwinding, weak on-chain demand, and ongoing institutional outflows could trigger volatility at key price levels.

For investors, the key is not passively waiting for sideways movement but closely monitoring two signals: first, whether the $100,000 level can hold; second, whether the realized prices of short-term holders can provide effective support. Only when demand truly recovers, rather than just weakening selling pressure, can Bitcoin shift from passive sideways to active upward movement.