Bitcoin ignores crisis in Venezuela and appreciates driven by ETFs and regulation, says expert

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Bitcoin ignores crisis in Venezuela and appreciates driven by ETFs and regulation, says expert Original Link: https://portaldobitcoin.uol.com.br/bitcoin-ignora-crise-na-venezuela-e-valoriza-impulsionado-por-etfs-e-regulacao-diz-especialista/ The rally that Bitcoin has been showing in 2026 is linked to internal market factors, such as regulatory agenda and crypto fund investments, and not to the military action by the United States against Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of Nicolás Maduro.

The analysis is by Rony Szuster, head of research at Mercado Bitcoin, who first notes that the action occurred early Saturday (3), while Bitcoin’s rise was only established on Monday (5). In a 24/7 open market, this gap shows that pricing is happening elsewhere.

At the time of writing, BTC is up 7% for the week and is trading around US$ 94,000.

The impact of laws and ETFs

“The determining factor for Bitcoin’s price at the moment seems to be the Market Clarity Act, a bill that is expected to be voted on in the U.S. Senate between January and February. This regulatory milestone is crucial for the sector,” says Szuster.

The bill will establish the general rules for the operation of the digital asset market in the U.S., creating clear definitions for assets, rules for sector companies, and defining the roles of regulatory agencies like the SEC and CFTC.

Additionally, the analyst highlights that the significant volume of inflows into ETFs is another factor: Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. saw inflows of US$ 697.2 million just on Monday (5), the best day since early October.

Another point is the new investment from a corporate strategy, which bought an additional US$ 116 million in Bitcoin at the start of 2026.

“The current price is more influenced by these micro fundamentals and macroeconomic data — such as this week’s employment report — than by geopolitics alone,” points out the expert.

Market had already priced in the event

Szuster explains that although geopolitical events tend to generate volatility in markets, the Venezuelan case has limited impact on Bitcoin because it was a one-off operation, already widely anticipated by investors.

According to the analyst, the Trump administration had been signaling for months an action against Nicolás Maduro’s government, with repositioning of military assets in the region, which caused the market to price in the event even before its execution.

Furthermore, the analyst highlights that there was no scenario of prolonged military escalation (ground invasion or continuous occupation) that could cause a widespread flight from risk assets. “If there had been a prolonged occupation, the market would seek refuge in traditionally safer assets, such as U.S. Treasury bonds,” he says.

Another point raised is that any indirect effects of regime change in Venezuela, such as a possible resumption of oil production and impact on global inflation, are uncertain and depend on a series of political and economic variables.

“Since it was a one-off operation, the market has already priced in that there will be no major developments, despite the Trump administration mentioning the possibility of new attacks, including in Colombia. Although such events are negative, they impact the crypto market in a less direct way.”