The Impact on Bitcoin of Trump’s Attack on Venezuela

On January 2nd of this year, American President Donald Trump ordered a targeted strike to capture the President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro.

The attack was successful, to the extent that Maduro was captured, thus ending his thirteen-year-long dictatorship

The price of Bitcoin rose during those days, but in reality, its ascent had begun the day before, and it probably had nothing to do with the US military action in Venezuela

However, there are connections between BTC and what is happening in the South American country

The Alleged Bitcoin Reserve

After Maduro’s capture, reports began circulating about a possible immense BTC reserve in Venezuela

The South American state several years ago had launched its own type of cryptocurrency, the Petro, whose project, however, miserably failed within a few years

The fact, however, is that those Petro were sold in exchange for Bitcoin, therefore the Venezuelan state has collected BTC in the past

According to on-chain data monitored by BitcoinTreasuries.net, there appear to be 240 BTC in wallets associated with Venezuela

Instead, the news circulating after Maduro’s capture even mentions 600,000 BTC, which is significantly more than the 328,000 held by the USA itself

It should be noted, however, that the data from BitcoinTreasuries.net comes directly from the public Bitcoin blockchain , while the information in the news appears to come from intelligence sources. Furthermore, these would be unconfirmed reports

The point is that there doesn’t seem to be any on-chain evidence that the Venezuelan State’s wallets hold a total of 600,000 BTC, but in theory, it cannot be ruled out that they may have used anonymous and untracked wallets

If the news were true, it is conceivable that the USA might manage to seize those BTC and subsequently add them to their strategic Bitcoin reserve. Alternatively, it is possible that the Venezuelan state might want to sell them, given that they would be worth more than 60 billion dollars in total as of today

However, the fact remains that the news is not only unconfirmed at the moment, but also completely lacking in evidence

The Geopolitical Situation

The Venezuelan crisis, however, could also have other impacts on the price of Bitcoin

Indeed, this event is reshaping the political landscape of South America and has significant repercussions on global markets, particularly affecting the price of oil

Venezuela indeed has immense oil reserves, which on one hand makes it a highly coveted target by the USA, while on the other hand positions it as a potential major player in the global oil market

Furthermore, Venezuela ranks among the top five countries in Latin America for cryptocurrency adoption, with a transaction volume of nearly 45 billion dollars between July 2024 and June 2025

After the news of the attack, the crypto markets experienced some volatility, with the price of BTC briefly dropping below $90,000 due to fears of a potential escalation of the conflict. However, within a few hours, it quickly rebounded above $91,000, marking a 1.5% increase in 24 hours

It is likely that these fluctuations are generally due to the reaction of global markets to this news, rather than a direct impact on the crypto markets

The Price of Bitcoin

In the following three days, the price of BTC then surged above $94,000, but it was a false bullish signal

The key point is that the movement above $91,000 occurred on a Sunday, which is when major institutional investors are not active

It is therefore possible that this upward movement was triggered by retail investors, who are certainly not known for their overall acumen

On Monday, as traditional markets reopened after the weekend, the upward trend continued, only to discover the following day that it was a false bullish signal

Now the price of BTC has effectively returned to the levels of Friday and Saturday, that is, before the news of the attack on Venezuela spread

It is possible that after the local minimum peak on December 18th (below $85,000), a phase characterized by a small rebound was triggered, which at least had the strength to interrupt the previous downward phase

As for a new upward phase, it might be necessary to wait at least until tomorrow, and perhaps over the weekend, retail investors got a bit too carried away with enthusiasm, trying to anticipate this new potential bull phase a few days too early

The Impact on Bitcoin of Trump’s Attack on Venezuela

In summary, the impact on Bitcoin’s price from Trump’s attack on Venezuela was minimal and decidedly short-lived

It may have generated a bit of excessive enthusiasm among retail speculators active over the weekend, which, however, completely dissipated in the following two days

However, if the news about the 600,000 BTC owned by the Venezuelan government were true, spending them would have a decidedly negative impact on the price of Bitcoin. Conversely, if they were seized by the USA and added to their reserve indefinitely, the impact could be positive

As for the impact stemming from geopolitical issues, it remains particularly difficult to predict as of today, given that Trump is a rather unpredictable president, and it is challenging to precisely anticipate what he might do in the future.