The non-farm payroll report will be revealed this Friday, directly affecting the Federal Reserve's subsequent actions. Citi's latest warning hits the nail on the head: if the unemployment rate in December really hits 4.7%, the Fed is very likely to be forced to loosen policy again in January—cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is almost a certainty.

The data makes it clear. Job growth has nearly stalled, initial jobless claims have repeatedly declined, and hiring enthusiasm continues to weaken—these signals together indicate that the labor market is cooling down. Officially, they say "no rush," but they’ve already started doing the math. Citi estimates an increase of only 75,000 jobs, which is basically on the edge of zero growth.

Looking further ahead is even more interesting. The rate has already been cut by 75 basis points in 2025; what about 2026? The market is pricing in a 60 basis point cut, but Citi’s baseline forecast is 75 basis points, and it could even break through 100 basis points. Oil prices are subdued, service inflation is falling, and the macro environment is becoming increasingly friendly to easing. Will this non-farm payroll report be the trigger to restart the rate-cutting cycle? #密码资产动态追踪 $BTC $XRP The market is waiting for this moment.