From a trading perspective, should we follow the trend or wait and watch when it comes to the 2026 non-farm payroll data?

For traders, the biggest challenge of the 2026 non-farm data is not judging whether the data is good or bad, but how to respond to the market's non-linear reactions. The simple logic of "good data equals long USD and short gold" has clearly become ineffective. In most cases, the market expectations before the non-farm release have already priced in most information. True opportunities often arise when there is a "discrepancy between expectations and reality." For example, if the market is heavily betting on strong employment, but the data is only neutral, this "missed expectation" scenario can more easily trigger directional moves.

Therefore, 2026 is more suitable for a combined strategy of event risk management and trend following: reduce positions before the non-farm data release, observe whether the market shows sustained directional movement, and then participate accordingly, rather than impulsively placing orders at the first moment.

In summary, the 2026 non-farm data is no longer a sole decision-making basis but a part of the macro market puzzle. Understanding its changing role is a reflection of trading maturity. #非农就业数据