2026-01-09 22:22:30

The first non-farm payroll data of 2026 has just been released, and the market is not as optimistic as expected.

**The Data Truth**

The number of new jobs added is only 50,000, far below the expected 70,000. More painfully, the data for the previous two months has been significantly revised downward, with October even revised to a negative growth of -173,000. The unemployment rate surprisingly dropped to 4.4% (previously 4.6%), hitting a new low since September last year. Hourly wages increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year.

What signals does this set of data send? Employment growth has basically stalled, yet the unemployment rate has decreased— the real story behind this is a decline in the labor force participation rate. In other words, it’s not that the market needs more people, but that some individuals are choosing to exit the labor market.

**What the Federal Reserve Thinks**

Although employment data is weak, wages are still rising and the unemployment rate is falling, making it highly likely that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the end of January. The US dollar index fluctuates between 98-99, and the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.2%. The market’s attitude is very clear— it’s not yet at a point where "emergency measures" are needed.

**Crypto Market Reaction**

After the data was released, BTC quickly stabilized above the $90,000 mark. As long as there are no extreme recession signals like a surge in the unemployment rate, the market tends to interpret this as an "excuse for mild rate cuts." The logic is simple: easing recession expectations = potential liquidity easing = support for risk assets. From this perspective, the current data environment is actually relatively friendly to the crypto market.

BTC0,4%

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MainnetDelayedAgain

· 22h ago

According to the database, how many times has the "moderate" degree of this non-farm data been postponed... 50,000 new jobs added, revised downward in the first two months, turning negative in October—how can the Federal Reserve still pretend not to see this script? A declining unemployment rate is not a good sign; instead, it indicates that some people have already chosen to exit the labor force. When this logical chain is unfolded, it’s truly ironic.

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UnruggableChad

· 01-09 22:49

The decline in labor force participation rate is real, and this is where the data starts to lie.

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MEVHunter

· 01-09 22:44

The decline in labor force participation rate is a very critical point. The low surface unemployment rate actually indicates that people have left the workforce, and there is a high possibility that the Federal Reserve is being misled.

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GweiObserver

· 01-09 22:42

Ha, it's the same logic again. A decrease in the unemployment rate actually means people have left, but the market is still forcing a story. Laugh out loud.

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BrokeBeans

· 01-09 22:28

Here we go again with the "low unemployment rate is actually a bad thing" argument? Basically, it means everyone is just coasting, and they still have the nerve to call it a positive signal. But indeed, as long as the Federal Reserve doesn't tighten the policy, BTC has a chance. Anyway, we're already familiar with the $90,000 level.

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