## 📈 Market Analysis

Over the past 3 days, ETH has fluctuated sharply between **3,054 and 3,297 USDT**, dropping **2.6%**. Daily RSI is extremely low and trading volume has shrunk more than **90%**, indicating a clear oversold state that may allow for a short-term bounce.

## 📄 News Focus

- **US advances GENIUS Act to tighten stablecoin regulation, splitting DeFi liquidity**. Ethereum's role as a main settlement layer is reinforced, but the ecosystem now relies more heavily on compliant assets, strengthening its foundational status for the long term;
- **$1 billion ETH liquidation risks draw focus**. Sharp price swings could trigger massive liquidations, and derivatives expiry may drive further volatility;
- **Whales build large ETH long positions and remain net profitable**. Despite some profit-taking, top on-chain addresses still hold considerable ETH longs;
- **Fed rate cut expectations rise as Trump policy debates heat up**, supporting short-term market sentiment.

 

Institutional and policy narratives continue to reinforce Ethereum’s role, but market still faces short-term volatility from divided capital flows.

## 🧐 Market Sentiment

- Overall crypto market stays in **fear** (**Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 27**), with low risk appetite;
- Social media and KOLs are overall bullish (bulls outnumber bears by nearly 3x), but capital acts cautiously, with a main focus on liquidation risks and policy moves;
- On-chain whales are rotating positions, with some profit-taking, but overall bullish allocation remains, while retail sentiment fluctuates with price moves.

## ✨ Key Points to Watch

- **Whether trading volume recovers**: Without a pickup in trading activity, any rebound could quickly lose momentum;
- **On-chain capital flow changes**: Whale reallocations and the share of compliant stablecoins will be decisive for liquidity strength;
- **Macro policy outlook (rate cuts and regulation)**: Fed actions and new crypto policy remain key trend drivers;
- **Whether institutions continue buying or selling**: ETF flows and movements from major holders directly affect mainnet confidence;
- **Whether sentiment shifts from division to consensus**: When KOLs and capital act in unison, it often signals trend reversals.

 

Overall, although ETH is oversold in the short term, volatility risks remain; market direction now depends more on policy and institutional flows.