January 10, 2026

The recent market has been quite good, but it's only the performance of some altcoins. The overall market remains lukewarm, which indirectly confirms my previous judgment: during the previous violent downturns, the main players have either passively or actively accumulated a lot of chips, and the concentration has reached a certain level, allowing them to manipulate the market under these conditions. As for mainstream coins, due to their large market cap and the relatively strong confidence of retail investors, whether it is absorbing chips or pushing the market up, it takes more time. Although there has been sideways consolidation for several months, the fact that there has been no upward push means that further accumulation is still needed.
From this perspective, there are two ways for the main players to further absorb chips: the first is to create a pessimistic market sentiment and then continuously absorb the selling pressure; the second is to further suppress the confidence of holders through sharp market fluctuations, thereby achieving the goal of clearing out chips. Sharp fluctuations are often downward. Based on past experience, if the second situation occurs, it is usually the last dip of the market, especially after a sideways period followed by a crash, which is most likely the final blow.
Although the current market shows some signs of a rebound, objectively speaking, I believe the probability of the second scenario is still not low. Even if the accumulation is truly completed, there will be sharp fluctuations before the market is pushed up, as a way to thoroughly shake out the weak hands. Of course, if the recent market experiences a substantial rebound, that would be the real bull tail phase. At that point, it might be wise to run, for example, if Bitcoin can reach 110,000 again. Overall, after experiencing