#非农就业数据 Contradictory Non-Farm Signals: Cooling Employment but No Hope for Rate Cuts, Will Bitcoin Rise or Fall?

US December non-farm data finally presents a relatively clear picture after the government shutdown turmoil, but this report casts a complex shadow over the market—significant cooling in the employment sector, yet the Federal Reserve may become more cautious because of it.

Bitcoin reacted quickly after the data release, with prices temporarily finding support in the $90,000 to $91,000 range. The report reveals that the US economy is experiencing a "slow cooling" rather than a "rapid deterioration," with new jobs mainly supported by a few service industries, while manufacturing and consumer-related sectors appear weak.

Meanwhile, the market did not receive an immediate signal for rate cuts from this report; federal funds rate futures show that the probability of the Fed holding rates steady at the January meeting remains close to 95%.

01 The Truth Behind the Data

December US non-farm employment presents a complex picture.

New jobs added were only 50,000, below the market expectation of 60,000, hitting a recent low. Data from the previous two months was significantly revised downward, with October's figures even revised to a decrease of 173,000 jobs.

Contrasting the weak job growth, the unemployment rate slightly improved, falling from 4.6% in November to 4.4%, slightly below market expectations. However, this "stability" is more due to a simultaneous contraction in labor supply rather than an improvement in job demand.

Looking at industry distribution, new jobs are mainly concentrated in a few "safety net" service sectors such as dining and hospitality, healthcare, and social assistance. Healthcare and social assistance remain the most stable sources of employment throughout the year, while retail employment decreased by 25,000.

Overall, manufacturing, construction, transportation, and warehousing industries show weakness, with little to no growth in employment.

02 The Fed's Calculations

This seemingly contradictory data may actually reinforce the Fed's cautious stance. Market pricing for short-term rate cuts has not significantly warmed in response to December employment data.

Rate futures traders maintain expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady at the January meeting.

US employment performance was not as bad as expected; the labor market conditions are slightly better than the predictions of the more dovish Fed members.

This suggests the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates again. The December unemployment rate is already slightly below the Fed's forecast of a 4.5% overall unemployment rate for Q4 last year. Coupled with the expectation of relatively strong Q4 GDP growth, the Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged for at least the next few months.

03 The Macro Logic of the Crypto Market

From a traditional finance perspective, this report is seen by some market participants as reinforcing the narrative of a "soft landing" for the US economy—that growth is slowing but not spiraling out of control.

This "Goldilocks" environment (not too hot, not too cold) theoretically benefits risk assets.

For the cryptocurrency market, the macro transmission pathway remains clear: weak data → rising expectations of rate cuts → weakening dollar → support for cryptocurrencies. However, the complexity of the current data mix leads to divergent market interpretations.

The key is to observe the immediate reaction of the dollar index after the data release, which often serves as the most direct indicator of capital flows.

04 Bitcoin and Ethereum's Battle

Bitcoin currently shows resilience near the $90,000 mark. The market's core focus is entirely on the non-farm data, as the data's performance will directly influence expectations for the Fed's rate cut pace, triggering market volatility.

On the technical side, focus should be on the support strength at $88,000. If the weekly close remains above $92,000, the bullish trend will be confirmed to continue. There is effective support near the midline on the daily chart, but the overall weak pattern has not been fully reversed.

Ethereum's movement is highly synchronized with Bitcoin. After returning above $3,100, the momentum for a rebound in the early hours was insufficient, stalling around $3,140. The technical picture also shows mixed signals, and attention should be paid to whether it can stabilize above $3,200 with the macro environment supporting it.

05 The Underlying Flows of Institutional Funds

Despite short-term volatility caused by data, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong. Over 100 billion USD in assets are held across 14 US spot Bitcoin ETFs, with the iShares Bitcoin Trust under BlackRock leading with $67 billion in assets.

Morgan Stanley is preparing to launch a new ETF supporting Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Some analysts point out that if just 1% of the US 401(k) plan funds flow into Bitcoin, the potential incremental capital could reach approximately $87 billion.

More notably, sovereign wealth funds are gradually increasing their positions during Bitcoin price corrections, establishing long-term holdings. This long-term allocation could provide support during market downturns and reduce volatility.

The immediate response pattern of the crypto market to macro data has become relatively fixed: weak data often triggers expectations of rate cuts, boosting market sentiment.

Looking at overnight movements, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have maintained key support levels, with bulls still holding their ground.

Solana benefits from institutional interest and active on-chain ecosystems; its response to macroeconomic signals is often more sensitive than Ethereum's.

As the regulatory environment gradually clarifies and institutional participation continues to grow, the fundamental support for the crypto market is strengthening. Regardless of short-term data fluctuations, Bitcoin's inherent nature as a "liquidity sponge" makes it attractive under easing expectations.