2026-01-10 19:40:15

#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 Mixed non-farm data signals conflicting messages, BTC repeatedly swings around the $90,000 level

U.S. December employment data is out, with only 50,000 new jobs—this is the weakest annual increase since 2020, far below market expectations. Ironically, the unemployment rate actually fell to 4.4%, which has completely muddied the market sentiment. The economy is indeed slowing down, but the resilience of the labor market remains, and whether it's a "soft landing" or a "recession" is anyone's guess.

What is the most direct result? Market bets on a Fed rate cut in January have plummeted from high expectations to just 5%. In other words, that shot was not fired.

BTC's reaction best illustrates the issue. It hovers around $90,707, indecisive, with neither side willing to bet heavily. Weak employment data was originally a bullish signal for rate cuts, theoretically good for risk assets. But since the unemployment rate didn't fall, the Fed might be more cautious about whether to actually cut rates, which remains a sword hanging overhead. JPMorgan's latest view indicates that ETF outflows have eased somewhat, and the short-term sell-off might not be as fierce, but the direction still depends on clearer macro signals.

From a technical perspective, $90,000 is a key support level. If broken, attention shifts to whether $88,000 can hold. In this high-level oscillation, rather than chasing wild swings, it's better to stay put, wait for the market to digest these conflicting signals clearly, and then act.

BTC2,01%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

16 Likes

Reward
16
8
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

TokenomicsDetective

· 4h ago

Contradictory signals are like this—one side says the economy is weak, while the other says the unemployment rate is strong. No one in the crypto circle can be certain. --- 90k is really a tug-of-war; those who can't sit still have already been pushed out. --- The probability of rate cuts has jumped directly from high levels to 5%. This move was unexpected, and the market sentiment is completely thrown into chaos. --- Instead of watching the K-line dance every day, it's better to wait until macro signals are truly clear before getting in. Moving recklessly now is just courting disaster. --- The unemployment rate didn't decrease; it actually plummeted. The Federal Reserve's move feels a bit pointless, and the market is all confused. --- The ETF stopping the bleeding is somewhat a positive signal, but it's not enough to turn the situation around. We need to wait for the next signal. --- If 88k can really hold, it indicates that the bulls still have strength; otherwise, a reassessment is necessary.

View OriginalReply0

AirdropHarvester

· 6h ago

50,000 new users? This data is outrageous, but the unemployment rate has actually decreased. Is this really a game changer? The 90,000 point is just draining people's patience. No one dares to bet. Wait, is this hinting at a rate cut or not? What does the Federal Reserve really want to do? Stay put and don't move. This wave is too chaotic. Wait until the signals are clearer. I just want to know if this is another fake-out to trap sellers. Has the selling pressure eased? Then maybe I can start buying the dip? Feels like a trap. Such a weak increase of 50,000 users, yet everyone is so cautious. The unemployment rate has slapped back. The data contradicts itself, retail investors are at a loss.

View OriginalReply0

BearEatsAll

· 11h ago

500,000 new users? This data is really disappointing; the market's rollercoaster of emotions this time is truly incredible. --- The probability of rate cuts dropped straight from high expectations to 5%, this reversal move left me a bit stunned. --- Weak employment data should have been good news for the crypto market, but instead the unemployment rate remained stable. This contradictory signal is really disgusting. --- BTC is repeatedly tugging at the 90,000 level, no one dares to bet, it feels like being choked at the gambling table. --- Wait, can the unemployment rate at 4.4% still indicate a recession? This logic is a bit like a nesting doll. --- The short-term easing of the sell-off sounds good, but without clear macro signals, who dares to really buy the dip? --- Instead of chasing volatility, it's better to sit and wait for the market to digest; this advice is quite realistic. --- 90,000 is the defense line; testing the water at 88,000 is crucial. The technical position in this situation is indeed key. --- The unemployment rate not falling is the most painful part; those hoping for rate cuts to benefit were all blocked.

View OriginalReply0

LayerZeroHero

· 01-10 20:10

90k this level is really stuck, it feels like the Federal Reserve's move has everyone confused Once again, a good hand turned into a bad hand. Non-farm payroll data, which should be positive, has instead become a suspense Those holding coins still need to be patient, wait for clearer signals before taking action It's indeed a bit strange that the unemployment rate isn't dropping. Is the economy really not that bad, or is there some manipulation in the data? Compared to blindly chasing the trend, I’d rather see if 88k can hold up

View OriginalReply0

MetaDreamer

· 01-10 20:07

The non-farm data is so disappointing, yet BTC is still stubbornly holding at 90K. I really can't understand the Fed's mindset. How can the unemployment rate still fall with 50,000 new jobs? The market is truly crazy. Let's wait and see when the Fed will loosen its stance. Acting now is just gambling with a gambler's mentality. As long as the critical line at 90K isn't broken, we should keep holding. I think it will continue to fluctuate for a while. Instead of chasing volatility, it's better to sleep and wait for clearer signals before jumping in. This data is so contradictory it's ridiculous; it's impossible to see through the expectations of rate cuts. Honestly, now betting is just pure luck.

View OriginalReply0

GateUser-26d7f434

· 01-10 20:05

Once again, Schrödinger's economic data—weak employment but decreasing unemployment rate? Damn, that's ridiculous. Wait, the rate hike expectation has collapsed from a high level to 5%, isn't that a no-go? The 90k level is really a tug-of-war, no wonder everyone is on the sidelines. Hold steady, hold steady, wait for the market to figure things out, anyway chasing volatility is just asking for death. Old Morgan said ETF outflows have eased, so let's wait and see. This data really taught the market a lesson; what looks like good news is actually a trap. Whether 88k can hold is the key; if it drops, it all depends on this.

View OriginalReply0

LiquidationTherapist

· 01-10 19:54

90,000 dollars is such a hurdle, it feels like a gamble. Both the bears and bulls are hesitating; whoever moves first will die. The data doesn't match up; employment data is weak but the unemployment rate is actually low. How do you interpret this? Bad news turns into good news and then back to bad news again—it's a cycle. Stay put and wait for signals. Anyway, rushing in now just gets you harvested; the true winners are those who can endure. Non-farm payroll data is so ridiculous. Will the Federal Reserve really cut interest rates? Honestly, I’m a bit afraid to bet on it. Is 88,000 the bottom line? It still feels like we need to see more; in such a chaotic market, rebounds are all fake.

View OriginalReply0

SerumSquirrel

· 01-10 19:48

Just sit and wait for the news; anyway, no one dares to make a move now, or they'll be the ones to suffer.

View OriginalReply0