January 11, 2026 Spot Gold Daily Review

Today, Cheng Jingsheng summarizes this week's performance of spot gold and provides an outlook for next week;

After the bullish and bearish battle, a breakout to the upside occurred, strengthening the core driving logic; this week, spot gold showed a pattern of "shock accumulation - bottom exploration - breakthrough and surge," with early-week profit-taking from year-end rollover and the third CME margin hike impacting prices, which fell back to a low of $4407.29/oz. Subsequently, under multiple positive catalysts resonating, prices oscillated and rebounded, reaching a high of $4517/oz on Friday, and closing near $4510/oz by the weekend, up over 2% for the week, successfully breaking above the key $4500 level.

Firstly, the US December non-farm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs, below expectations, reinforcing bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March; Fed officials signaled the possibility of a significant rate cut of 150 basis points in 2026, putting pressure on the dollar and US bond yields, providing strong support for gold prices, along with rising safe-haven demand amid ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, tense Venezuela situation, and global economic recovery uncertainties, driving safe-haven funds into the gold market. Secondly, long-term support remains solid, with continued global central bank gold purchases; 95% of surveyed central banks plan to increase holdings, with the People's Bank of China continuously adding for several months, forming structural support. Institutions are collectively bullish, with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and others raising target prices; multiple positive news resonances have pushed gold prices higher, maintaining a high-level oscillation pattern.

However, due to the Bloomberg Commodity Index annual adjustment triggering approximately $7 billion in passive selling, and CME increasing margin requirements raising trading costs, short-term speculative sentiment has been suppressed, exacerbating high-level volatility, becoming a short-term disturbance factor. Therefore, caution is advised regarding the risk of pullbacks, and avoid blindly chasing long positions!

Next week, spot gold is likely to remain in a high-level oscillation with a slight bullish bias. The core upward logic remains unchanged, but short-term resistance in the $4550-4560 range may trigger profit-taking pressure.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows a long lower shadow bullish reversal candle, the 4-hour chart indicates gentle increasing bullish momentum, RSI has not entered overbought territory, leaving room for a short-term rebound. If prices stabilize above $4520, there is potential to challenge the $4600 level; key support below is at $4480, with strong support in the $4460-4440 range.

Next week’s economic data and policy signals should focus on US CPI, retail sales, and other inflation and consumption indicators. Weak data will further reinforce expectations of rate cuts; ongoing attention is needed on Fed officials’ speeches and the January FOMC meeting outlook, with current market expectations of a 90% probability of maintaining rates in January. Additionally, geopolitical risks such as developments in Russia-Ukraine and Venezuela should be monitored, as any escalation could boost safe-haven buying. Lastly, market liquidity and sentiment, including gold ETF flows, futures positions, and post-adjustment fund reflows, should be observed.

Trading Suggestions

On Monday, Cheng Jingsheng recommends mainly "buying on dips," with a secondary strategy of shorting on rebounds. Consider entering long positions on pullbacks to $4465-4470, with a stop-loss below $4430, targeting $4550-4560. Avoid chasing highs; at high levels, consider light short positions to play for pullbacks.

This is only personal advice for reference; it does not constitute investment advice. Please follow Cheng Jingsheng’s layout for specific strategies.