Is the upcoming trend for BTC a rebound or a reversal???

Let's put the conclusion upfront: I think it's a rebound.
Taking Bitcoin as an example, the market has already given quite a few hints.
First, it took too long to break through the first high during the rebound.
From the bottom rebound to surpass the high on December 10th at 94,570, it took nearly a month. I mentioned before that the longer the time, the heavier the resistance above, which itself is not characteristic of a strong market. Comparing this to the April 2025 wave, where the first rebound high was surpassed in just 5 days, this time it took almost 30 days, which is a very clear difference.
Second, the breakout was not decisive at all.
Right after breaking around 94,500, the highest was only about 94,700, then a few days later it fell back all the way, even breaking below the key integer level of 90,000. A true trend reversal is almost impossible to develop like this. There was a retest in April as well, but after breaking through, it never fell back below 90,000, the structure is completely different.
So overall, I lean more towards: either sideways grinding or a continued rebound to around 98,000 before falling again—anyway, it doesn't seem like a very weak reversal market.
As for why many people are concerned about a decline? There's no need to overthink it. The financial markets have always followed this rule: after a big rise, a fall is due. After several years of multiple times gains, a correction like this is very normal for any asset. Whether it's Bitcoin, the S&P 500, NASDAQ, A-shares, or gold and silver, as long as the previous rise was strong, a significant decline afterward is almost inevitable—there are no exceptions. #加密市场观察