January 14, 2026 BTC Contract Key Technical Levels

The current price is in a strong main upward wave resonating across multiple cycles, but short-term indicators show significant overbought conditions. Abandoning the top-fishing approach to short, strictly follow the principle of "only going long in a trend," focusing on "key support levels for pullbacks to go long."

Core Trading Logic:
• From a long-term cycle perspective, the price has clearly broken through the long-term downtrend line with a long bullish candle, and the monthly MACD has a golden cross. The structure confirms the end of the long-term downtrend, signaling the start of a new bull market cycle. However, note that the monthly chart warns of large long-term volatility, and deep pullbacks are inevitable within the trend.
• From a medium-term cycle perspective, the price has strongly broken out with consecutive large bullish candles, moving away from the previous high of 94,500, with the daily MACD opening a second gap at high levels. The structure indicates a clear main upward wave (Wave 3 or Wave C). 90,450.7 is the starting point and trend lifeline of this main upward wave. Despite severe short-term overbought conditions, the trend takes precedence.
• From a short-term cycle perspective, the market currently shows a clear five-wave impulsive structure, but RSI shows signs of top divergence. The price is oscillating at high levels within the 94,400-96,600 range. This is the acceleration and consolidation at the end of the main upward wave, the strongest yet most fragile phase of the trend. Caution is advised against contrarian short positions.

Bull-Bear Dividing Line / Trend Lifeline: 90,450.7 USDT (the absolute starting point of this main upward wave; if not broken, the bull market structure remains intact).

Upper Resistance Levels (Long Target/Observation Levels):
P3: 100,000.0 (core psychological and technical key)
P2: 98,000.0 (Fibonacci extension level)
P1: 97,000.0 (recent push target)

Lower Support Levels (Long Entry Zones):
S1: 92,000.0 (recent 1-hour support level and psychological barrier, core long entry zone)
S2: 90,450.7 (golden long position / trend lifeline)
S3: 87,717.9 (previous major support level; breaking below this would pose serious challenges to the entire upward wave structure)

Probability Trading Discipline:
1. The above levels are estimated based on technical calculations, not exact points; orders can be placed with a buffer of 100-150 points around these levels.
2. Today's stop-loss distance: 1500 points (for take-profit, beginners can set 1:1; experienced traders should execute and reduce positions by 50%-75%, then move to break-even).
3. Limit to a maximum of 2 preset trades per day (long and short setups).
4. If daily losses reach 10% of capital, forcibly shut down and rest.

Probability Trading Conclusion:
The market is at the end of the daily and weekly cycle main upward wave. The only high-probability strategy is: abandon shorting ideas, only go long, but never chase highs. The main approach is: patiently wait for the price to pull back to secondary support S1(92,000) or core support S2(90,450.7) to establish long positions. If no opportunities arise, observe the market all day. All operations must strictly include stop-loss, abandon cleverness, and set fixed risk. Use a consistent 1:1 risk-reward ratio, allowing market inertia to reward you. By consistently executing this simple, repetitive system, you will achieve stable profits.

Disclaimer: This content is compiled from public market analysis and historical data, intended for informational reference only. It does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; all investment decisions should be based on independent research.