Prediction market Polymarket is pricing in a 73% probability that the Supreme Court will invalidate Trump's proposed tariffs in tomorrow's ruling. This has significant implications for market volatility and risk asset positioning. If the court sides against the tariffs, we could see a sharp relief rally across equities and cryptocurrencies, as reduced trade friction typically supports risk appetite. Conversely, if tariffs stand, expect defensive positioning to intensify. Traders are watching this closely as a key macro catalyst heading into the session.
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Prediction market Polymarket is pricing in a 73% probability that the Supreme Court will invalidate Trump's proposed tariffs in tomorrow's ruling. This has significant implications for market volatility and risk asset positioning. If the court sides against the tariffs, we could see a sharp relief rally across equities and cryptocurrencies, as reduced trade friction typically supports risk appetite. Conversely, if tariffs stand, expect defensive positioning to intensify. Traders are watching this closely as a key macro catalyst heading into the session.