Currently, let's do a probability breakdown of Bitcoin's market outlook by the end of 2026—assuming a baseline scenario with a 50/50 chance of hitting $140,000–$150,000; a more optimistic view of $180,000–$200,000 (30% probability); and a pessimistic scenario where it fluctuates between $65,000–$75,000 (20% probability). Essentially, where it ultimately goes depends mainly on three factors: liquidity, institutional ETF accumulation, and whether regulatory policies are truly implemented.

**How the baseline scenario might unfold**

In the first half of the year, Bitcoin could repeatedly test the $82,000–$92,000 range. If in Q2 the Federal Reserve actually begins to cut interest rates, coupled with continuous inflows of "smart money" into spot ETFs, risk appetite will increase. Based on the cyclical pattern after the halving, this period often presents a mid-term rebound window. Following this logic, reaching $140,000–$150,000 by the end of the year is a relatively solid expectation.

**Optimistic outlook**

If Bitcoin breaks through the $95,000 key level, and institutional buying truly kicks in, combined with the global central banks' unexpected monetary easing, and the US clarifies crypto legislation and stablecoin regulations, then $180,000–$200,000 is not out of reach. This scenario has about a 30% probability but requires multiple conditions to align simultaneously.

**Don't overlook the pessimistic scenario**

If inflation rebounds, the Fed is forced to hike rates again, or US stocks undergo a sharp correction, Bitcoin could directly fall below $80,000, with the entire second half of the year oscillating between $65,000 and $75,000. Although this probability is lower (20%), the risk is real.

**Key catalysts to watch**

Liquidity is king—decisions by the Federal Reserve on rate cuts from March to May, and the stance of global central banks, will directly influence the attractiveness of risk assets. On the spot ETF front, whether funds can shift from outflows to inflows, and whether institutions are willing to allocate real capital, are critical indicators of market sentiment. Regulatory clarity—such as US crypto legislation and stablecoin rules—can significantly reduce compliance uncertainties and positively influence institutional confidence.

The current state is one of building a bottom, waiting for these catalysts to materialize one by one. There is market potential, but patience is required.