#2026年比特币价格展望 The US December CPI data just came out, and the market instantly exploded. Year-over-year growth is fixed at 2.7%, and core CPI is also at this level, with both month-over-month figures rebounding to 0.3%. The numbers look impressive, but economists immediately debunked them—this isn’t a positive signal at all, but rather a false calm left behind after the statistical distortions caused by the government shutdown in November fade away.

At 13:00 Beijing time on January 13, after the release of this data, the market’s true reaction was very straightforward: inflation issues are far from resolved. Behind the so-called "perfect compliance," lies the awkward reality that inflation remains stuck above the 2% target. The countertrend rebound in core CPI directly extinguished expectations of rate cuts, and the Federal Reserve’s January meeting is now almost certain to keep rates steady.

How does all this impact the asset markets? The divergence pattern has fully opened up. Gold initially fell then rose, firmly holding the historic high of $4,600, driven by safe-haven demand and a global central bank gold-buying wave, becoming the strongest engine pushing gold prices higher. US stock futures showed unexpected resilience, shifting market focus from inflation anxiety to earnings season, with AI industry chains and pro-cyclical sectors dancing to their own tunes. The dollar index slightly rebounded, now steady at the 98-99 level, with short-term interest rate differentials still supporting the exchange rate. However, Trump’s occasional comments about Fed intervention have long planted hidden risks to the dollar’s long-term credibility.

This seemingly "qualified" CPI report essentially exposes the true face of stubborn US inflation. How much of the economic truth has been masked by the statistical adjustments after the shutdown? Market trust in official data has long fallen to freezing point. On one hand, we must guard against the difficulty of discerning real from fake in official figures; on the other, we need to closely monitor how policy changes impact assets—this is the core challenge facing today’s capital markets. What’s your take? How much "water" is really in US inflation data? Can gold ride the safe-haven wave to break through $4,600 and hit new highs?