2026-01-14 02:21:46

#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 US December CPI data released, with year-over-year growth fixed at 2.7%, and core CPI also remaining at this level. At first glance, it meets the official expectations, but economists have sensed something unusual—the true significance of this data warrants scrutiny after the statistical gap caused by the government shutdown last month has been filled.

Specifically, December CPI was 2.7% YoY and 0.3% MoM; core CPI also stood at 2.7% YoY and 0.3% MoM, both showing a month-over-month increase. On the surface, this is good news, but it actually hints that inflationary pressures have not truly dissipated, and the situation of exceeding the Fed’s 2% target continues.

The most direct signal from this data is that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at the end of January is essentially locked in to not cut rates. The failure of rate cut expectations immediately triggered a market re-pricing.

Gold experienced a rollercoaster, initially falling then rising, ultimately stabilizing at the historic high of $4600. Central banks worldwide continue to increase gold purchases, and safe-haven funds are flowing in steadily, making this bull market quite solid. US stock futures show remarkable resilience, with market focus shifting from inflation concerns to earnings season performance. The AI industry chain is leading the way, and cyclical sectors are also gearing up under the guise of moderate inflation. The US dollar index has slightly rebounded, stabilizing in the 98-99 range, with short-term interest rate differentials supporting the exchange rate.

However, it is worth noting that signals of Trump’s intervention in Fed policy have already planted seeds, which could exert medium- to long-term pressure on the dollar’s credibility. How much of the data correction after the shutdown actually masks the real economic situation? How much of this CPI report is inflated? The market is voting with prices. Can gold break through $4600 and reach new highs? The answers to these questions depend on the market performance in the coming weeks.

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GweiWatcher

· 7h ago

Wait, the government shutdown fill-in gap? These data points definitely warrant a question mark... --- No more rate cuts, gold is stable this wave, even 4600 can't stop it --- To put it simply, inflation hasn't disappeared at all, 2.7% is still there --- Trump wants to move on the Federal Reserve? Now that's the real bombshell --- AI is truly leading the pack, but the cyclically sensitive sectors are a bit weak --- There might be some water in the data, my intuition tells me so --- Breaking new highs in gold is just a matter of this month --- No more rate cuts, the US stock market still resisting? I find that hard to believe --- Data revisions after the shutdown... what are economists hinting at? --- The US dollar at 98-99 won't last long, Trump’s side has been watching closely for a while

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PessimisticOracle

· 7h ago

It's the same old data manipulation... CPI looks like it meets the standard, but behind the scenes, it's all pitfalls caused by government shutdowns. Gold has stabilized at 4600, is this really reliable this time? Once Trump gets involved, how long can the US dollar's credibility last? It will collapse sooner or later. AI is leading the pack, and other sectors are just riding along. No more rate cuts, and this month will be tough again. A 2.7% CPI and you think you can fool us into believing inflation is gone? Laughable. The central bank is aggressively buying gold, everyone knows what that means. Can we trust the shutdown data? I see only fog. Is the US stock market resilient? Let's wait for the earnings season. How deep is this water? Just look at the price voting to find out.

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BetterLuckyThanSmart

· 8h ago

Once again, it's the same old "meeting expectations" trick. Do they really know how much of the real data is watermarked? Gold staying at $4600 is solid, and the central banks' enthusiasm for gold buying is real. Safe-haven demand is coming in continuously, and this bull market is indeed built on a strong foundation. The Fed not cutting interest rates is a certainty. I believe in the market turning to earnings season stories, and AI is still on the rise. Trump's interference with the Federal Reserve is the real thunderbolt. In the medium to long term, it will cause significant damage to the dollar. Don't cry when that happens. This CPI report card is basically a game of statistics. How is the real economy doing? The gold price has long spoken for itself.

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FortuneTeller42

· 8h ago

Still talking about the data? 2.7% hasn't even decreased, isn't that just hinting that the Federal Reserve won't move at all before the end of the year... Gold hitting a new high is pretty satisfying, but I'm just worried Trump might cause some trouble again. Is the AI concept taking off again? So inflation is just going to be saved by AI, haha. How much of the data is fake anyway? Anyway, I believe in gold. Locking in no rate cuts is really a killer move, I need to start buying the dip by the end of January. The USD at 98-99 probably won't hold, it feels like it will continue to be drained. Let's wait and see how the market unfolds in the next few weeks. I give this CPI test a poor grade.

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