2026-01-14 02:29:19

Bitcoin finally broke through the $95,000 mark, ending nearly two months of oscillation. Ethereum's gains don't seem small, but its trend has been weak and sluggish, repeatedly tugging around the $3,400 level.

Looking at the trading data is even more interesting—single-day block trades for BTC amount to nearly $1.7 billion, accounting for more than 40% of the total market volume, clearly indicating that funds are betting on Bitcoin's rise. In contrast, Ethereum's block trades are only about $130 million, just over 20%, showing a very cold market.

But there's a problem: futures trading volume hasn't picked up, and the implied volatility of key maturities hasn't risen significantly. This suggests that the derivatives market hasn't caught up yet, more like a conditioned reflex to short-term price surges. Has the structural long-term bull market already formed? It's still too early to tell. How firm the market's true expectations are remains to be seen.

BTC3,22%

ETH6,56%

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RooftopReserver

· 3h ago

Rooftop Bookmaker's Comments: Once it breaks 95,000, the bragging starts. Futures are so虚, just a rebound, bro. --- ETH really can't be pushed up, no wonder no one is watching it. --- All-in on BTC? Isn't that just a gambler's mentality? Sooner or later, it will crash. --- If you haven't kept up with derivatives, what does that mean? It just shows that no one truly believes this wave can rise. --- Here comes the "long-term optimistic" routine again. Short-term liquidation is the real reflection. --- Ethereum staying flat around 3400 is a bit scary.

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ResearchChadButBroke

· 4h ago

Breaking 95k is exciting? Futures volume hasn't kept up, be careful, it might just slam you back down. --- ETH's performance is really disappointing, funds have all shifted to BTC, and you're still hoping for it to take off? --- What does the lack of reaction in the derivatives market mean? It just means institutions haven't truly entered yet. What are retail investors celebrating here? --- Long-term bull market? Bro, it's still too early to say that. Let's talk again when futures open interest soars. --- It looks powerful, but it's really just short-term capital doing the work. The real structural long setup hasn't formed at all. --- A new high wave just means a slow bull? Wake up, implied volatility hasn't risen, so this is just false fire. --- Funds are all pouring into BTC, but the coolness of Ethereum is really hard to watch. --- Large trades don't necessarily mean genuine confidence. That logic is a bit naive. --- Let's wait and see how the futures react. Jumping to conclusions now is still too impatient. --- Breaking through this level with BTC is indeed satisfying, but since the derivatives market hasn't caught up, I really can't go all in.

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HodlKumamon

· 4h ago

Derivatives didn't keep up, and this point is too critical. To put it simply, it's still a reflexive rebound, not a real bull market. --- Ethereum has really been neglected again, and this pace is heartbreaking to watch. --- Data speaks for itself: futures volume isn't rising, implied volatility hasn't increased, and the bears feel there might still be some play left in this wave. --- Breaking 95,000 was just crossing a threshold, but a structural long setup hasn't really formed. Don't get too excited, everyone. --- Funds are all piled into Bitcoin, with Ethereum only making up 20%. The market preferences are so different that there seems to be an arbitrage opportunity. --- It's just a short-term reflex, and how it will develop in the long run still depends on when the derivatives market truly catches up. --- The bears want to ask: if even futures haven't picked up, how confident can the real expectations be?

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pvt_key_collector

· 4h ago

The selling point hasn't arrived yet, and this wave can't go too far. No movement in futures means big players are still on the sidelines, don't get too excited. BTC bloodsucking machine is speeding up, Ethereum players should be panicking. Short-term rebound ≠ bull market, why do we still need to say this common sense? Uh... the derivatives market is so cold, do institutions really see the prospects? Two months of volatility suddenly breaking, the probability of a rebound trap is quite high. Ethereum's follow-up is too weak, it feels like this round is a solo show for BTC. The fact that implied volatility hasn't risen actually best explains the issue—it's a false rally.

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New_Ser_Ngmi

· 5h ago

It's just above 95k, but it's indeed strange that futures haven't caught up with this. --- ETH really can't push higher; it feels like all the funds have been drained by Bitcoin. --- No movement in derivatives, which indicates that big players are also uncertain. --- Short-term rebound ≠ long-term bull market; I really can't buy into this logic. --- The fact that implied volatility hasn't increased is very key; don't be fooled by the price surge. --- BTC is bleeding out too aggressively; Ethereum investors are getting numb. --- A reflexive rally doesn't sound very reliable. --- Funds betting on BTC is not wrong, but how long this can last is really uncertain. --- Futures indifference = institutions haven't fully entered the market yet, those who understand know.

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LeekCutter

· 5h ago

Breaking 95k is just the beginning? It should have broken earlier; funds have already moved to BTC, and nobody wants ETH at all. The lack of volume in futures indicates this is just a short-term surge; don't get caught off guard.

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Lonely_Validator

· 5h ago

BTC this time breaking 95K is really just a false fire, futures have no volume, implied volatility isn't rising, which explains everything. Funds are playing short-term games. --- ETH is still the same old story, crushed into a soft-footed shrimp. When will it turn around? --- The biggest disappointment is that the derivatives market hasn't kept up, indicating that big players don't believe this rebound can last. I'll just watch quietly. --- All funds are copying BTC. Is Ethereum being abandoned? Is it just Bitcoin dancing alone? --- A reflexive surge—this term is used perfectly. Those entering now are probably going to be the ones holding the bag. --- Breaking 95K, so what? Without derivatives following, this rebound's reliability is questionable. --- Ending two months of consolidation forcefully? Come on, that's just the beginning. The real test is still ahead. --- Ethereum is truly the most disappointing second-tier coin I've seen, always being ground into the dirt by the big players. --- Just looking at the spot market being lively and the futures market cold—it's obvious what institutional investors are thinking. --- Long-term bull market with structural long positions? Wake up, buddy. This situation is clearly a short-term rebound.

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ArbitrageBot

· 5h ago

If you haven't caught up with futures, don't rush to hype a bull market. This wave still feels like the main force testing the waters. --- Breaking 95,000 for BTC is a signal, but Ethereum is so weak? Capital is choosing very clearly. --- Derivatives are dull; the real big money is still on the sidelines. --- It's just a reflexive surge; a long-term structure hasn't formed yet. I'm still cautious. --- Funds are all piling into BTC, and Ethereum is completely neglected. The difference is too obvious. --- I don't believe the futures volume is enough to signal a true bull market. --- A short-term rebound is fine, but don't take it as the start of a major trend; implied volatility hasn't caught up. --- A bunch of people are saying breaking 95,000 is coming, but I doubt it. The derivatives market is the real test.

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