January Mid-to-Late Warning of the Triple "Black Swan" Risks

1. Geopolitical Black Swan: Stagflation Risk Triggered by Out-of-Control Situations
• Trigger Point: Further deterioration of the Venezuela situation, or conflicts spreading to broader Latin American and Middle Eastern supply chains.
• Potential Impact: Global energy prices will experience a retaliatory surge, directly triggering the "stagflation" trading logic in global markets. Although Bitcoin has hedging properties, extreme energy cost pressures may lead to a sharp increase in mining costs or a temporary depletion of global liquidity.
2. Financial Policy Black Swan: The Fed's Unexpected "Hawkish" Turn
• Trigger Point: At the January 28 Federal Reserve meeting, Powell showed an extremely hawkish stance regarding inflation rebound caused by tariffs (such as hinting at no more rate cuts or even resuming rate hikes).
• Potential Impact: This will trigger a liquidity flash crash. Currently, the market still harbors hopes for rate cuts; once these hopes are dashed, Bitcoin may experience violent shakeouts from the $100,000 level, retreating to the $85,000 mark.
3. Trade Counterattack Black Swan: Global Supply Chain Reciprocal Game
• Trigger Point: In response to U.S. tariff pressure, major economies (such as China or the EU) implement strong reciprocal countermeasures against U.S. advantage industries (such as agricultural products, aerospace, or high-end manufacturing).
• Potential Impact: An escalation of the global trade war will severely impact tech stocks, and sharp fluctuations in the Nasdaq index may temporarily drag down the crypto market, causing Bitcoin to experience intense volatility with "sharp declines first, then safe-haven" movements.