XAUUSD reaches a boiling point in the global market as central banks cut back, increasing risks.

Today’s Gold Market Situation: Heavy Reactions After Venezuela Event

Today’s Asian market opens with investors clearly flocking to safe-haven assets. XAUUSD shows a rebound of over 1%, breaking through the $4,500 level sharply before retracing to settle around $4,460. This capitulation is not caused by minor economic factors but stems from a chain of geopolitical events just occurred.

The U.S. military operation to arrest Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend has sparked concerns. Analysts see this as a warning sign that global conflicts may shift from natural conditions. Under the new U.S. administration, aggressive policies in the Western Hemisphere—ranging from drug cartel crackdowns to signaling interest in Grenland—have created an uncertain environment for markets worldwide.

The Gold Market Is Smarter Than the Stock Market: Different Signal Readings

An interesting phenomenon is happening: some global stock indices continue to hit new highs as if nothing has occurred, while XAUUSD gold prices are moving in a different direction. Experienced major investors are no longer obsessing over corporate profit figures but are instead shifting funds into hedging instruments.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, clearly states that gold no longer plays its traditional role. It has risen to become a crucial safe asset for global stability. This signals that capital is preparing to cope with potential escalation of current situations.

The $5,000 Game: The Intent Behind Massive Money

To understand why investors are desperately fleeing into gold, let’s look at the bigger picture of high-stakes game play.

The U.S. moves toward the Western Hemisphere, China may see opportunities to establish footholds in Taiwan, Russia is monitoring the situation amid economic difficulties and divine intervention rumors. These are variables that the gold market is seriously factoring into (Price-in).

Analysts believe the medium-term target for XAUUSD is $5,000 per ounce. This figure is not wishful thinking but based on fundamental calculations—rising public debt, a weakening currency, and geopolitical tensions. While stock markets may overlook these, the precious metals market is taking them seriously.

Precious Metals Moving Together: Not Just Fear of War

The recent events have not only affected gold. Silver (Silver) has surged over 4%, trading around $80 per ounce, while copper (Copper) futures have jumped over $6 per pound, reaching new highs.

What drives this brotherhood of metals is not just cyclical fear but the world’s transition toward clean energy. Central banks may be accumulating gold due to concerns, but the industrial sector needs silver, and energy companies cannot adapt without copper.

The Gold-to-Silver ratio has shortened to 55 (lowest since April 2013), indicating that money is showing a preference for these assets. This signals that investors are risking their resources in what matters in the new world.

Short-term Caution: $5.5 Billion in Sales Watching Closely

Amid positive news, risks are not negligible. Goldman Sachs warns that large index funds need to rebalance their portfolios. After gold delivered a 67% return and silver surged nearly 150% in 2025, profit-taking and rebalancing could release $5.5 billion from gold and another $5 billion from silver.

This selling does not mean fundamentals are improving. It’s a financial mechanism that could push prices higher. These periods may be opportunities for those who believe in post-event scenarios or warnings for overly cautious investors.

Technical Gold Chart Analysis: What’s Beneath the Surface

XAUUSD is currently at $4,462. The chart is running within an upward parallel channel on the 4-hour timeframe. Prices are approaching the upper boundary of the channel, which often acts as a minor resistance point.

The next technical target is Fibonacci Extension 141.4% around $4,480–4,481. This is a critical “test wall.” If broken, the next target is $4,551 (Fibonacci 161.8%).

Indicator signals are somewhat conflicting. RSI remains at a neutral 60, suggesting room to rise before entering overbought territory. However, Stochastic RSI has shown a Bearish Crossover while still above 80, indicating upward momentum is tightening and the risk of a correction is high.

Risk-reward at current levels is not favorable. The upside space before resistance is limited, while the risk of a pullback is higher.

Areas of interest for accumulation: $4,433–$4,441. If prices establish a solid base here and rebound, staying above the short-term EMA, it would confirm the path toward the next target.

Main resistance levels: 4,480 | 4,520 | 4,550

Main support levels: 4,433 | 4,400 | 4,342

Ultimately, the safest strategy is to wait for a correction and buy in zones supported by technical structure, at least until global fundamentals move in an unpredictable manner.