Ouro retreats modestly as the dollar maintains strength ahead of the US NFP

Caution in the Gold Market Amid the Dollar’s Strength in Recent Days

The precious metal is experiencing a consolidation phase this Friday after posting a positive performance in the previous session. Starting from US$ 4,400, gold (XAU/USD) faces new selling pressures during Asian trading hours, with the US dollar (USD) maintaining the appreciation trend observed over the past two weeks and reaching levels not seen since early December.

Despite the dollar’s strength, the scenario is not entirely adverse for the yieldless asset. The dovish outlook emanating from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) acts as a natural brake on further significant appreciation of the US currency. The market is eagerly awaiting the US non-farm employment report (NFP), whose results should provide important signals about the next monetary policy move by the US central bank.

What Moves Prices This Week

Employment Data in Focus

Traders are watching the employment figures to be released today. The US economy is expected to have created approximately 60,000 new jobs in December, lower than the 64,000 recorded in November. The unemployment rate is expected to decline from 4.6% to 4.5%, which could reinforce the narrative of a resilient labor market.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated in an interview this week that reducing borrowing costs is the missing component to further boost economic growth, implicitly suggesting that the Fed should not delay this trajectory. Market participants are already pricing in the possibility of rate cuts in March and further reductions throughout the year.

Geopolitical Risks Provide Some Support

International tensions are gaining ground as a supporting factor for the XAU/USD pair. President Trump signaled during an interview with The New York Times that the US seeks long-term management over Venezuela and its oil resources. Simultaneously, China has intensified restrictions on exports of rare earths and magnets to Japan, in response to Japanese Prime Minister’s statements about Taiwan. Meanwhile, the German chancellor warned about the distance still to be covered to end the conflict in Ukraine, considering Russia’s stance in negotiations.

Technical Outlook: Where Optimists Should Pay Attention

The pair remains above the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA), located near US$ 4,322.58, maintaining the overall upward bias. Retracements find support in the favorable slope of this moving average.

The MACD line remains below the signal line and the zero mark but shows an upward movement. The negative histogram has been contracting, signaling a reduction in selling pressures. The RSI stands at 56, above the neutral level of 50, indicating improving momentum without signs of overbought conditions.

For buyers to confidently regain control, a solid break above US$ 4,500 is necessary. Meanwhile, losing support at US$ 4,322.58 would open the door to a deeper correction.

US Dollar Performance This Week

The US dollar showed broad gains against major currencies this week. Its strongest appreciation was against the Swiss franc, with a 0.92% increase, followed by the Japanese yen with 0.90%. Against the euro, the dollar advanced 0.60%, while it declined by 0.30% against the Canadian dollar, reflecting a particularly strong week for the US currency.

The performance matrix shows the relative dynamics among the pairs. The US dollar as the base currency is strongest against the Swiss franc, while the euro demonstrates relative stability against other currencies in the group.