Ethereum's June Wrap-Up Faces Urgency: Multiple Positive Factors Fail to Break the Sideways Dilemma, Technical Indicators Show Death Cross Warning

Although Ethereum experienced a record high in ETF net inflows, whale accumulation reaching new highs, and other bullish catalysts in June, the price still failed to break through the key resistance at $2,510 and ended with negative returns. Geopolitical risks have intensified, and CME short positions have hit record highs, becoming two major obstacles suppressing ETH’s rally. On the technical side, the 12-hour candlestick chart has shown death cross signals, and oscillators have entered oversold territory, warranting caution for downside risks.

Why Do Multiple Bullish Signals Turn into “Paper Talk”? Ethereum’s June Performance Is Disappointing

According to Cryptorank statistics, Ethereum closed June down 1.5%, with the total loss in the first half of the year expanding to 25%, forming a stark “bullish signals but no rise” dilemma.

This month, the US spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net inflow of $1.16 billion, marking the second strongest month since launch, with only $39.98 million outflow within 30 days, rewriting the lowest historical record. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s accumulation addresses (mainly new wallets with no withdrawal or sale activity) saw the largest monthly net inflow ever in June.

More notably, listed companies such as SharpLink Gaming, Bit Digital, and BitMine have launched ETH treasury allocation strategies, with staked ETH steadily rising to a historic high of 35.52 million. Additionally, the bipartisan support in the US Senate for the GENIUS stablecoin bill has injected a positive sentiment catalyst into the Ethereum ecosystem—according to DefiLlama data, Ethereum’s network carries nearly 50% of the global stablecoin market cap.

However, these positive signals have not translated into price momentum.

Why Do Bullish Signals Fail at This Moment? Geopolitical Tensions and Institutional Basis Trading as Behind-the-Scenes Drivers

The fundamental reason for Ethereum’s sideways movement stems from dual suppression by macro risks and institutional behavior.

First, the escalation of the Israel-Iran nuclear conflict has cast a shadow over the entire crypto market. During the sell-off triggered by this event, Ethereum briefly fell below $2,110 support, offsetting several days of rebound gains. Subsequently, Tesla CEO Elon Musk and President Trump publicly clashed on social platform X over the “Great American Act,” further dragging market sentiment down, with Ethereum dropping 3% on Tuesday.

More concerning is the expansion of institutional basis trading. According to on-chain tracking tool EmberCN, a whale/institutional investor has withdrawn 95.3K ETH from staking contracts over the past three weeks, with 68.1K transferred to exchanges, hinting at quiet institutional selling. Meanwhile, CME Ethereum short positions and ETF net inflows are hitting new highs simultaneously, reflecting a fierce “long vs. short” battle—institutions are positioning for shorts in futures markets, hedging against spot ETF buying.

Technical Alert: Death Cross Emerges, Oscillator in Oversold Territory Sends Downward Warning

This week, Ethereum continued consolidating within a tight range of $2,300 to $2,500, but faced persistent rejection at the critical level of $2,510, with the short-term resistance firm.

On the technical indicators, the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) has crossed below the 100-period SMA, forming a death cross—this lagging indicator signals that short-term momentum is weaker than medium-term momentum. Below this signal, the 200-period SMA reinforces support around $2,350. The stochastic oscillator has entered oversold territory, indicating increasing selling pressure.

According to Coinglass data, Ethereum’s futures liquidation over the past 24 hours totaled $46.06 million, with $40.10 million long liquidations and $5.96 million short liquidations, exposing longs to greater risk.

Price Forecast and Trading Insights: What’s Next?

In the short term, if Ethereum cannot hold above $2,350 support, it may test the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle down to the vicinity of the 200-period SMA; further breaking below $2,110 could trigger a chain of liquidations down to the $1,750 level.

For a rebound, Ethereum needs to break through the combined resistance near the 50- and 100-period SMAs to have a chance to retest the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle. Currently, ETH is trading at $3.36K (a recovery compared to June), with a 24-hour increase of +2.19%, but it still needs to hold key supports to confirm a bottom.

Market sentiment shows a 50% bearish proportion, reflecting cautiousness about the short-term trend—whether the next move will be upward or downward depends on the emergence of new catalysts or a reversal in institutional behavior. Until oscillators and technicals show clear signs of improvement, investors should remain cautious.