Attention from BTSE management regarding the impact of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy shift on the cryptocurrency market has been highlighted.

**Downward Pressure Under the Hold Interest Rate Scenario**

With the end of quantitative tightening in December, two different scenarios are being considered in the market. If interest rates remain at current levels through the first quarter of 2026, a slowdown in liquidity supply could put pressure on risk assets. In this case, Bitcoin could adjust down to $70,000, and Ethereum might be forced to fall near $2,400.

**Upward Scenario Through Continued Reinvestment Purchase Programs**

On the other hand, a more optimistic outlook is also gaining traction. The Federal Reserve's Reinvestment Management Purchase (RMP) program, launched on December 1, involves purchasing approximately $40 billion worth of short-term government bonds each month, and some market participants are calling it a "hidden form of quantitative easing."

If this program continues through the first quarter of 2026, sustained liquidity supply to the market will be realized. In that case, Bitcoin could rise further from the current $92,000 range, with expectations of trading between $92,000 and $98,000. Similarly, Ethereum is expected to benefit from the evolution of Layer-2 solutions and the expansion of the DeFi ecosystem, with room to rise up to $3,600.

**Multiple Factors Supporting the Market**

Supporting these price levels are ETF capital inflows exceeding $50 billion from institutional investors and ongoing accumulation buying. The entry of institutional investors aiming to improve liquidity conditions and optimize portfolio allocation is highly likely to further strengthen the market's upside potential.

In conclusion, the Federal Reserve's policy developments are expected to significantly influence the medium-term outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum.