A Structural Turning Point Is Near: From Bitcoin's Volatility Compression to Opportunity Expansion

In recent months, the Bitcoin market may appear to be stagnant at first glance, but quietly beneath the surface, structural changes are beginning to take shape. After a dip in mid-October, the market is transitioning from a simple downtrend into a more complex game-theoretic stage.

The Essence of Year-End Market Behavior Indicated by Implied Volatility Compression

Currently, Bitcoin is operating in an environment where implied volatility continues to compress. The price fluctuates within the range of $70,000 to $100,000, and in the short term, there is a lack of clear catalysts to drive an upward move. Meanwhile, the US monetary policy being more hawkish than expected is limiting the upward momentum of risk assets overall.

The immediate challenge is that, with implied volatility remaining low, investor behavior is becoming more conservative. During the year-end portfolio adjustment phase, Bitcoin is more likely to be sold off as a profit-taking target for other assets, creating additional selling pressure. Many trading desks recovering from the sharp decline in early October remain cautious about expanding risk exposure, and the overall market continues to maintain a low-volatility range.

The Turning Point in the Battle Indicated by Options Expiry Events

The biggest turning point is the upcoming Bitcoin options expiry on December 26, 2025, the largest in history. With approximately $17.2 billion in calls and $6.2 billion in puts expiring, clear changes in market structure are emerging.

Looking at the options strike price map, calls (buy positions) are mainly concentrated above $100,000, making short-term achievement difficult. Conversely, a significant number of open put (sell) positions are clustered around $85,000, suggesting this price range could become a battleground with intense competition around the expiry date.

Historically, year-end markets tend to be conservative, but once the new year begins, reallocation of funds and risk budget recovery often lead to emotional reversals that surpass expectations. Current technical indicators show downward momentum has slowed to its limit, but a clear consensus on upward movement has yet to form.

The Intersection of Current BTC Price and Market Opportunities

The real-time price of $92.78K and a 24-hour change rate of -2.37% suggest that the market is transitioning from a “risk of decline dominance” to a state where “downside is limited and upward catalysts are needed” — a process of shifting competition.

After the options expiry, position pressure is expected to gradually ease. The potential inflow of ETF funds in January and the recovery of risk appetite could further improve market sentiment.

Divergence Between Long-Term Outlook and Short-Term Opportunities

Even if 2026 faces challenges for a long-term one-way buy, the focus of research is beginning to shift toward tactical opportunities. Bitcoin has lagged behind other major assets for several weeks, but due to the calendar effect of year-end and the start of the new year, related rebound opportunities may arrive sooner than market expectations.

The significance of the December 26 options expiry lies not in the settlement mechanism itself but in the fact that, at this milestone, market participants are starting to reposition in anticipation of January fund inflows and risk appetite recovery. This phase could become an important window to observe structural shifts and sentiment reversals.

Disclaimer: Markets carry risks, and caution is advised when investing. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading involves high risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made carefully considering individual circumstances and consulting financial professionals.