The Dawn of Cryptocurrency in 2026: The Eight Institutions' Perspective on Market Transformation and the Essence of Conflict

Introduction: The End of the “Halving Myth” and the Dawn of a New Era

2026 may become a pivotal turning point in the history of the crypto market. The long-held Bitcoin four-year cycle theory that has dominated market fluctuations is facing a fundamental shift in dynamics.

Reading the latest reports from seven major institutions—Fidelity, Bitwise, Grayscale, 21Shares, Galaxy Digital, Coinbase, and a16z—the once-prevailing story of “market driven by retail investor sentiment and mining halving events” is rapidly fading. Instead, a new narrative is emerging: a market led by institutional capital, maturing alongside regulatory development.

Fidelity explicitly states that the market has entered a “New Paradigm”, and that it is no longer possible to predict 2026 using past data models.

Part One: The Foundation of Consensus—Eight Institutions Point in the Same Direction

From Cycles to Paradigm: The Collapse of the Old Narrative

Bitwise, Fidelity, Grayscale, and 21Shares show remarkably aligned views: Bitcoin’s halving cycle is losing its dominance.

21Shares goes further—“The four-year cycle of Bitcoin has broken.” Their data models indicate that with the introduction of spot ETFs and quarterly institutional investment mechanisms, the market’s driving force has shifted entirely from supply side (miners) to demand side (large institutional purchases).

If BlackRock and Fidelity’s client bases continue to allocate Bitcoin, the old magic that “halving leads to new highs every four years” will inevitably fade.

Asset Maturation: The “Evolution” of Bitcoin

Bitwise’s bold forecast suggests that Bitcoin is undergoing a qualitative transformation. There will come a day when Bitcoin’s price volatility falls below that of tech stocks, meaning it will evolve from a “high-risk speculative asset” to a “mature inflation hedge”.

Fidelity offers a more fundamental perspective. Against the backdrop of global debt expansion and the persistent decline in fiat currency value, Bitcoin is being re-evaluated as a hedge against global currency inflation. Its correlation with tech stocks will weaken, establishing its position as an independent asset class.

Part Two: The Dawn of Capital Flows—A New Form of Finance

The Quiet Revolution Led by Stablecoins

If Bitcoin is digital gold, then stablecoins are digital dollars, shaking the foundations of traditional financial systems.

Multiple institutions emphasize the significance of stablecoins:

• 21Shares: The total market cap will surpass $1 trillion by 2026, elevating from peripheral crypto assets to mainstream financial infrastructure.
• Galaxy Digital: On-chain trading volume will exceed the ACH (Automated Clearing House) network in the US—meaning stablecoins will substantially threaten traditional interbank settlement systems.
• Coinbase: Looking ahead, stablecoin market size is projected to grow to $1.2 trillion by 2028.
• a16z: Stablecoins will evolve into the “core payment layer” of the internet, promoting PayFi (Payment Finance) prosperity, enabling cross-border remittances to be as cheap and instant as email.

Payment Revolution in the AI Era: The Impact of x402 and KYA

This is the most significant technological variable that a16z and Coinbase are both watching for 2026.

Coinbase’s report mentions a new standard called Agentic Payments Protocol (AP2) developed by Google. Their x402 protocol functions as an extension of AP2, enabling AI agents to execute micro-payments directly and instantly via HTTP protocols. Automated payments from AI to AI will create a new business closed loop.

The concept of KYA (Know Your Agent) proposed by a16z is even more innovative. Currently, the ratio of “non-human (AI agents) to human” in on-chain transactions has already reached 96:1. Traditional KYC (Know Your Customer) will evolve into KYA in this new reality. AI agents can hold crypto wallets without bank accounts, freely exchanging data, computing power, and storage via micro-payments 24/7.

Prediction Markets: Democratization of Information and the New Order

Prediction markets, identified by multiple institutions as a key explosive growth point in 2026, are becoming a “true institutional consensus track”.

• Bitwise: The open interest in decentralized prediction markets (like Polymarket) hits historic highs, functioning as a “truth source” alongside traditional news media.
• 21Shares: The annual trading volume of prediction markets will surpass $100 billion.
• Coinbase: A unique perspective suggests that new US tax regulations (limiting gambling loss deductions) inadvertently steer users toward prediction markets. Since prediction markets are classified as derivatives for tax purposes, they are not considered “gambling” and thus offer tax advantages.

Part Three: Divergence and Conflict—Sources of Excess Returns

Consensus is often embedded in prices, and divergence is where abnormal returns (Alpha) and potential risks are hidden.

The Fate of Digital Asset Companies (DAT): Liquidation vs. Ignorance

Regarding the model of “public companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin,” pioneered by MicroStrategy, institutional opinions sharply diverge.

Liquidation Camp (Galaxy Digital & 21Shares):

• 21Shares predicts total DAT assets reaching $250 billion, but emphasizes that “only a handful will survive.”
• Galaxy Digital is more specific: “At least five DAT firms will face asset sales, acquisitions, or bankruptcy.” The reckless pursuit in 2025 will flood the market with many companies lacking capital strategy, making 2026 a “year of liquidation.”

Ignore Camp (Grayscale):

• Views DAT as “merely a hot topic.” Despite media attention, the disappearance of accounting standards and undervaluation will prevent it from being a core driver of market prices in 2026.

Quantum Threat: Worry or Worry Not?

• Worry (Coinbase): The report dedicates a chapter to “Quantum Threat,” warning to urgently begin transitioning to post-quantum cryptography standards. Underlying signature algorithms must be upgraded to quantum-resistant solutions.
• Calm (Grayscale): Positions “Quantum Threat” as mere “hype,” asserting that within the 2026 investment cycle, the likelihood of quantum computers cracking elliptic curve cryptography is zero, and investors should not pay a “fear premium.”

“Zombie Chains” in L2: 21Shares’ Sharpest Warning

21Shares predicts most Ethereum Layer 2s will fall into “zombie chains” before 2026.

The reason is clear: liquidity and developer resources exhibit a strong Matthew effect, ultimately concentrating on top-tier solutions like Base, Arbitrum, Optimism, and emerging L1s like Solana.

Galaxy Digital verifies this with real data: “The ratio of application layer revenue to L1/L2 network layer revenue will double by 2026”—a proof of the “Fat App Theory”. Value is flowing from infrastructure layers to super apps with actual user bases.

Part Four: Hidden Opportunities—Corners Outside Mainstream View

Rebellion of Privacy Tokens

Galaxy Digital and Grayscale both have high hopes for privacy tracks, with Galaxy Digital predicting the total market cap of privacy tokens will surpass $100 billion. They especially focus on the rebound of Zcash ($ZEC), seeing privacy as moving from a “crime tool” to “Institutional Necessity” (Privacy as a Service).

Resurgence of Regulated ICOs

With the completion of regulatory frameworks, “Regulated ICOs” are expected to re-enter the stage as legitimate capital market fundraising tools.

Rise of Crypto-Related Stocks

Bitwise forecasts that crypto-related listed companies such as mining firms, Coinbase, and Galaxy Digital will outperform traditional large tech stocks.

Conclusion: Investment Rules to Survive 2026

Integrating the outlooks of these eight institutions, the market logic of 2026 is fundamentally reshaped.

The simple model of “waiting blindly for halving” is a thing of the past.

The new rules for survival in investment boil down to three principles:

1. Prioritize leadership and realistic profitability: Amid the harsh淘汰 of L2 and DAT, liquidity and capital structure are indicators of survival. Focus on protocols generating positive cash flow.

2. Understand technological infrastructure innovation: From Google’s AP2 standard to KYA, new alpha emerges from technological evolution. Pay attention to the implementation of protocols like x402.

3. Detect false narratives: For institutional investors, there are not only golden opportunities but also “hype.” Being able to distinguish long-term trends like stablecoins replacing ACH from short-term speculation will determine success or failure in 2026.

(This article reflects analysis based on institutional reports and does not constitute investment advice.)